I recently updated a post from over two months ago thanks to a mistake I made in Excel, but I looked at how much money a first-round prospect could lose in the 2014 Draft if they get drafted at a worse slot than they’re slated to go, or how much extra cash they could make if they rise.
I’m actually going to post that here as well, but along with the sum and differences of every rookie-scaled contract of first rounders since 1995 when Joe Smith, Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace, among others, were taken. You can find yearly rookie-scaled salary at RealGM from 1995 to 2020 (a really cool page in my opinion) and the earnings from first round draftees are consistent with what shows up in the Salaries section of Basketball-Reference’s player pages. The key thing is to multiply the salary on RealGM by 1.2, as most players get that 20 percent bump allowed in their rookie salary.
The first tables I made look at the total amount each draft pick could make. These, along with every other table in this post, assume every first round pick got the 20 percent raise and played every year of their rookie contract. I also attached extra sheets about what percentage a non-first overall pick makes compared to the top draftee and the increase in salary each year from first round picks. The lockout-shortened seasons mark the biggest increases/decreases from year to year, among other noticeable things.
Anyway, take a look if you’d like. Each season marks the first year of a rookie contract so Kevin Garnett’s would be 1996, Kobe Bryant‘s as 1997, Anthony Bennett‘s as 2014, and so on. Below that I’ll post differences in salary from each draft slot:
And below are differences in three and four-year rookie contracts over the years. At first, I listed players with their draft slot to allow for easy comparing, but it made tables a bit too messy for my liking. Basketball-Reference’s draft pages might help, though.
Again, each season marks the first year of a rookie contract so Kevin Garnett’s would be 1996, Kobe Bryant’s as 1997, Anthony Bennett’s as 2014, and so on. Might be easy to mistake that when looking at sheets in the middle.
Hopefully that helps those who are posting re-drafts, though, something I’m seeing a lot of lately. Crab Dribbles is currently in the middle of their series from 2003 to 2013 while Amin Elhassan and David Thorpe of ESPN looked at some draft classes too, though those posts are Insider-only. There’s also been just some good, fun Twitter discussion about where Kawhi Leonard would land in a 2011 re-draft. Just how much would he make if he went from the 15th overall selection to, say, second overall? What about others who would get a nice bump in pay?
We can look at that and a few other players that might come to mind. I had a lot of fun reading re-drafts so I actually made some of my own as quickly as possible to look at the biggest raises from each rookie class. I’m sure quite a few re-picks are debatable — they’re not team-specific to begin with and I left second-rounders off the list below. Still, it goes to show what an uptick in the sum of rookie contracts can be like anyway. Players with the largest increase in pay from each class are sorted by their rookie years, and I included some notes about picks I wasn’t totally sure of or just thought were more interesting than others:
The largest increases are ones where players go to the very top versus late-1sts going into the late-lotto, etc. but it’s not like Kawhi and others were 100% sure studs at the time of their actual draft nights and only slipped after a series of front office blunders. In re-drafts, though, some players like Michael Carter-Williams (and possibly ones from draft classes down the road) would’ve had raises in their rookie contracts large enough to equal or surpass the first year of a mini-max contract. I also think actual draft slots have an impact on second contracts, which is another post altogether but it can be tested by what Evan Turner makes next season.
Anyway, hope this was interesting. For those continuing to do re-drafts and/or looking at this year’s prospects, hope this helps and adds a little more to discussions. Keep up the good work.
As a reminder, salaries are according to RealGM.