NBA predictions–drawn from a hat: Eastern Conference

2014 NBA Season, NBA previews, Rankings October 24, 2013 Leave a comment

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If you missed the Western Conference or need an explanation about what the heck’s going on with these predictions, click here.

Yesterday, we looked at the Western Conference and what it would be like if their records were drawn from a hat. Today brings the Eastern Conference and scenarios for each team according to the record they drew. Let’s begin:

Team #1: Chicago Bulls

I’m just assuming my first time playing basketball in over a year will be the same as Derrick Rose’s:

Record from a hat: 46-36

This is a little weird when Chicago, if anything, has been terrific in the regular season compared to the playoffs.

Scenario: In what’s an improved Eastern Conference, coach Thibs swings the other way from his usual allocation of minutes and chooses to rest players to the point of surrendering some tail ends of back-to-backs. Also, Chicago has a little trouble playing around Derrick Rose, who (hopefully) attacks a little less in order to save his body in the long run.

But Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng regress. Their PERs drop by .1 for every trade rumor they’re involved in.

Team #2: Orlando Magic

The winners of the Dwight Howard trade one season later.

Record from a hat: 43-39

So much for tanking with Victor Oladipo at point guard.

Scenario: The front office flirts with benching the starters for lottery picks but screw it, winning is fun. Orlando gets in a trade with Atlanta:

Orlando receives: Al Horford, Lou Williams

Atlanta receives: Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Hedo Turkoglu’s expiring contract

That might be too much to give Atlanta or too little; we won’t know for another season or two when we know more about Harris and Vucevic. Orlando’s offense was terrible without Glen Davis and with Harris though, good for dead last in offensive rating and fifth worst on defense. It’ll be a tad bit better with Al Horford, even if the Hawks were just an average team on offense last season. I’m a pretty terrible trade constructor and player evaluater anyway. It’ll make more sense when Atlanta’s hat drawing comes around.

Oladipo at point guard turns out to be a smart decision via the additional wins versus additional lottery balls, Moe Harkless takes his game to another level, Glen Davis will pass on a few mid-range jumpers for once, and everyone will be dancing like Big Baby at the thought of this team making the playoffs:

Team #3: Milwaukee Bucks

The most mediocre team in the NBA after getting out of Tankapalooza 2014. In the process, they avoided becoming so bad the motto ‘Tears for the Deer’ won’t be reserved until the next time they trade a blue chipper for an above average veteran.

Record from the hat: 33-49

Scenario: The Bucks struggle when Ersan Ilyasova is taken out of games, O.J. Mayo does O.J. Mayo things (play well for one month and erratic for the rest of the season), and Brandon Knight progresses only ever so slightly.

They become a League Pass favorite, however, when John Henson and Larry Sanders wreak havoc on defense and whenever Giannis Antetokounmpo steps onto the floor. It’s mandatory the Greek Freak plays for 40 minutes in the Rookie-Sophomore game.

Team #4: Brooklyn Nets

Quite the contender for my 2014 Time Machine Champion. My next post regarding that fake award will also include 2013’s champ.

Record from a hat: 19-63

Scenario: For all the teams I said would start out bad, Brooklyn actually goes 16-0 before Prokhorov rewards his starting lineup for their strong performance. He gives them a paid vacation around the world. The starting lineup gets lost in South Korea somewhere. All of them become Starcraft whizzes and never return to Brooklyn. The Nets falter. Reggie Evans averages the least-efficient 20 points per game outside of ‘Monta Ball’. Kevin Garnett becomes the most prolific trash talker Starcraft has ever seen.

Meanwhile, Boston and Atlanta lick their chops while looking at the draft picks Brooklyn owes them.

Team #5: Boston Celtics

To tank or not to tank?

Record from a hat: 41-41

Scenario: The Celtics keep Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green becomes more consistent with the added responsibility, Gerald Wallace isn’t awful, and Kris Humphries has an F-U season after hearing the news of Kanye proposing to Kim Kardashian. Also, Jordan Crawford becomes eerily similar to his older brother (not the 2012 version of him while in Portland) and Bill Simmons has 8,472 orgasms at the thought of this team making the playoffs.

In all seriousness, if this happens then Brad Stevens should be a favorite for Coach of the Year. That, or Jeff Green makes the All-Star team or Rondo is a dark horse for the MVP.

Team #6: Charlotte Bobcats

Not sure how they’ll do here, especially without Al Jefferson for some time.

Record from a hat: 40-42

Scenario: EWING THEORY! Not because of missing Jefferson though — they lost Byron Mullens in the off-season.

Also, they get in the trade with Memphis I hinted about in the post concerning the Western Conference.

Memphis receives: Ben Gordon ($13.2M expiring), Cody Zeller, and Charlotte’s second round pick

Charlotte receives: Zach Randolph

Charlotte plays themselves out of their own protected draft pick but they still own Portland’s and Detroit’s. Two first round picks plus Kemba Walker, Bismack Biyombo, MKG, Al Jefferson, Zach Randolph, and Jefferson’s and Randolph’s contracts that could both expire after 2015; that’s not the road to a title but it isn’t a terrible one to take for both the short and long-term.

Giving up their first round pick also kills a lot of potential trades for Chicago.

Team #7: Detroit Pistons

Joe Dumars hopes the free agent splurge of 2013 is more effective than that of 2009.

Record from a hat: 59-23

Success!

Scenario: I mentioned a Dirk Nowitzki trade in the Western Conference post. Detroit jumped in on that. Here’s my terrible trade idea to get them to 59 wins:

Dallas receives: Greg Monroe (assuming he signs an extension), Charlie Villanueva ($8.6M expiring), Rodney Stuckey ($8.5M expiring), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jonas Jerebko, Detroit’s 2018 first-round pick.

Detroit receives: Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion

That could be too much for Detroit to give when Dirk’s prime is winding down and Monroe is just getting started, but one’s a former MVP while the other may become an All-Star though not as frequently as Nowitzki. One is a rental for a title run and the other is a building block that’s about to get expensive to keep.

Monroe is looking to get near the max in his next contract, which is kind of a problem if Andre Drummond is in their long term future with Josh Smith. Predicting a trade isn’t that outlandish, though getting Nowitzki in return is a bit of a stretch. But that’s what the hat predicts in order for Detroit to win 59 games and Dallas to win 16.

The Pistons are going to be all right with Monroe, but Dirk makes them a top-5 offense. Fab Melo could start at shooting guard for all I care, but Chauncey Billups may get the nod. Meanwhile, Andre Drummond logs 30 minutes for 75 games and destroys the Rookie-Sophomore game.

And this all works out because Brandon Jennings buys in. If that’s not believable I don’t know what is.

Team #8: Miami Heat

Three straight Finals appearances, back-to-back championships and Mario Chalmers hasn’t even hit his prime.

Record from a hat: 55-27

Scenario: The Heat coast a ton, possibly too much for their own good as they lose home court advantage throughout the playoffs. With a stronger Eastern Conference, winning around 60 games isn’t that big of a stretch.

Dwayne Wade has another 20-5-5 type season, but he’ll play 70 games (good for 75 if he doesn’t rest in April) whereas some may predict more around 60. Chris Bosh and Shane Battier might break in half if Miami plays two straight series versus any combo of Indiana, Chicago or Brooklyn but they’ll survive the regular season.

With the crazy records being predicted, this is the most vulnerable LeBron James has been concerning winning the MVP.

Team #9: Philadelphia 76ers

In the Western Conference post, the hat foresaw a trade sending Russell Westbrook, Kendrick Perkins, and Hasheem Thabeet to Philadelphia in exchange for Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young, Spencer Hawes, Kwame Brown, and the Pelicans’ first round pick.

Record from a hat: 55-27

Scenario: Russell Westbrook goes in total F-U mode, flirting with the top five in MVP voting, and Royce White plays every game and is awesome, like a 15-8-4 line every night. That’s just one of several reaches.

Jason Richardson loses 30 pounds when he realizes this team is going to make the playoffs. Also, Nerlens Noel DOES come back to play this season when the Sixers go from tanking to not only chasing the playoffs but nabbing home court for a round or two. A Noel-Thabeet-Perkins rotation somehow doesn’t turn out to be terrible.

But to win 55 games the 76ers will also have to sign a couple players to ten-day contracts who end up as possible all-stars. That’s about as likely as anything else I’ve said about this team.

Team #10: Indiana Pacers

Last season the Pacers had a bench thinner than Rip Hamilton yet were one game away from playing in the Finals. Was it all a fluke?

Record from a hat: 46-36

Scenario: Danny Granger has trouble fitting in with the Pacers’ offense, Roy Hibbert isn’t exactly the one we saw in the Eastern Conference Finals, and Luis Scola—one of their best additions this summer—continues to regress even though he’s not starting anymore.

That all could happen, or there’s this: The Pacers miss Tyler Hansbrough. So much. And just aren’t the same without him.

Team #11: Toronto Raptors

New management and a new global ambassador in, um, Drake. Will it be enough to make the playoffs?

Record from a hat: 60-22

Scenario: Inspired by Drake, the 2016 All-Star bid, and dedicating the season to Raptor, the Raptors come out smoking through a tough November schedule. Struggling early on might lead to Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan being shipped, but both turn into mid-range gods. (With consistent three-point shooting too!)

Rudy Gay has the most notable improvement of the two though as he can, like, finally see the damn hoop now after eye surgery. This leads to his first appearance in the All-Star Game.

Toronto’s starting lineup has been notoriously effective and it will have another huge season, but the bench steps up as well. Terrence Ross continues to be an intriguing talent despite the limited time available to him and another guard Toronto trades for.

That’s where Vince Carter comes in! Getting shipped to Toronto in exchange for Steve Novak. He won’t play much, but is along for the playoff run that Toronto is headed for. Will he jinx the franchise he tanked for in his last season there or will the reigning boos whenever he plays there turn into heaps of joy in the postseason? Is that trade my biggest reach yet despite 90% of these predictions never happening?

Team #12: Atlanta Hawks

After trading Al Horford for Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Hedo Turkoglu’s expiring and a first round pick, Atlanta scores a record of…

Record from a hat: 28-54

Scenario: Atlanta just can’t go 28-54 without a trade or injury occurring. Because I hate predicting injuries I went with the former. Trading Horford in any scenario is a sign to build towards the future than present. It also helps when Paul Millsap is on such a fair, short deal. He, Harris, Vucevic, and Elton Brand make for some intriguing possibilities in their frontline, at least on offense.

Trading only Horford is pretty generous if the Hawks rebuild. Their entire roster should be on the plate this season regardless if things go south.

Since Atlanta also owns Brooklyn’s pick, the hat’s predictions puts the Hawks in the race for Andrew Wiggins.

Team #13: Washington Wizards

Record from a hat: 28-54

Scenario: It doesn’t help that Emeka Okafor is going to miss a good chunk, if not all of this season with a herniated disc in his neck. And then there’s Nene, whose feet might fall off at any moment. The options to replace them are dicey with Jan Vesely, Kevin Seraphin and Al Harrington (even if he made my 2014 Dream Team).

But there’s major upside in their backcourt. John Wall and Bradley Beal will be terrific with Wall chasing his first All-Star Game, but there’s not much else there if the frontline is depleted with injuries. Randy Wittman will be on the hot seat and probably fired if the Wizards do indeed go just 28-54.

Team #14: Cleveland Cavaliers

(Deep breath.)

Record from a hat: 60-22

!!!

It’s like they won the lottery.

Scenario: Bynum and Irving, lots and lots of healthy Andrew Bynum–the one Shaq thought was the best center in the NBA–and Kyrie Irving.

Tristan Thompson becomes something of a switch hitter: Shooting left-handed jump shots on the right side of the court and righties on the left side. Dion Waiters scores in an odd, efficient way and becomes more of an appetizing prospect than, say, Harrison Barnes. Anthony Bennett makes the best of the times Jarrett Jack passes to him and C.J. Miles makes his threes like he’s paid to do, which has been b a rarity throughout his career.

All of this and the hat’s prediction on the Cavs makes Kyrie Irving a favorite to win MVP.

Team #15: New York Knicks

So many weird ingredients in the hot steamy bowl that is the Knicks.

Record from a hat: 54-28

Scenario: I have to bullet this:

  • Somehow, this whole squad gets along which helps Mike Woodson resist the temptation to have a flask in his inner suit pocket.
  • Tyson Chandler stays healthy and remains a top-three candidate for Defensive Player of the Year.
  • Amar’e Stoudemire plays more than 15 games for 15 minutes per game. His per-36 numbers, at least on offense, will be good stat porn.
  • Every time Andrea Bargnani scores 20 points, every fan at MSG gets free pasta at a nearby, um, pasta restaurant. We’ll find out which one Bargnani stars in a commercial for soon enough.
  • Raymond Felton resists the temptation to eat as many Knicks fan’s pasta bowls as possible, chooses to stay in shape.

Recap

  1. Cleveland Cavaliers 60-22
  2. Toronto Raptors 60-22
  3. Detroit Pistons 59-23
  4. Philadelphia 76ers 55-27
  5. Miami Heat 55-27
  6. New York Knicks 54-28
  7. Chicago Bulls 46-36
  8. Indiana Pacers 44-38
  9. Orlando Magic 43-39
  10. Boston Celtics 41-41
  11. Charlotte Bobcats 40-42   
  12. Milwaukee Bucks 33-49
  13. Atlanta Hawks 28-54
  14. Washington Wizards 28-54 
  15. Brooklyn Nets 19-63

                      

NBA predictions–drawn from a hat: Western Conference

2014 NBA Season, NBA previews, Rankings October 23, 2013 1 Comment

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So many sites are coming out with their own rankings of NBA players and teams. Now, it’s time for Chicken Noodle Hoop to join in.

I did plenty of homework on each team before realizing a more accurate prediction could be done from the drawing of a hat, so that’s what I did. I put 30 different folded pieces of paper with all the teams listed in one hat and 30 different win-loss records in another. Most of the records come from my first stab at the 2014 standings, though those predictions are no match for ones from a couple of hats.

After knowing every record of every team, I created a scenario for how each team’s season would play out according to the record they drew. Most of the time it caused me to throw logic out the window, which was shocking. I had higher hopes. Maybe a simulator from a computer program would’ve been the better choice, maybe not.

It’s too late now. The results from the hats are in and here they are, starting with the Western Conference.

Team #1: Minnesota Timberwolves

How ironic. My local team is drawn first.

Record from a hat: 41-41

Scenario: This is a likely result with their current roster, which is nice because I don’t have to predict any wild trades or injuries right off the bat. The latter is something I hate doing in general. The former is something I flat-out suck at.

But the Wolves should get what looks like a healthy, dominant 23-point 13-rebound Kevin Love back with a collection of wings who can, like, actually shoot the ball. They could perform a handful of wins better or worse depending on:

  • Their health, especially from Love, Ricky Rubio, and Nikola Pekovic.
  • Whether they keep from becoming a bottom-5 defensive unit.
  • Whether or not they score at a top-10 mark.

Even if they only manage an eighth seed, Minnesota should be a pain to take out in the playoffs with their high-octane offense.

Team #2: Oklahoma City Thunder

Heading into 2014, the Thunder find themselves with a depleted bench and an increasingly crowded Western Conference.

Record from a hat: 25-57

Two teams in and the shit hits the fan.

Scenario: Despite a soft schedule without Russell Westbrook, the Thunder stumble. The bench is worse than Portland’s last year, Kendrick Perkins gets eviscerated on both sides of the court, the young upstarts for Oklahoma City take a step back in their progression, and Serge Ibaka takes three steps back in his own progression. The more OKC slumps, the more weight Ibaka gains and he gains A LOT of weight (so does Hasheem Thabeet). He also burns his shooting hand one halftime trying to eat a hot pocket with his bare hands. The mid-range jumpshot he worked so hard to master falters. Oklahoma City goes 8-23 heading into 2014.

The chemistry on this team becomes a mess, a far cry from what it was like two seasons ago. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, who’ve performed just fine, complain to the media about the moves made over the last two years, the lack of a sophisticated offense, and Ibaka’s Get-Heavier-than-Washed-Up-Shaq diet. Management flirts with amnesty candidates until Russell Westbrook requests to be the one let go, even though that’s not really possible. He wants to start all over in Philadelphia, creating this poo-poo trade:

Oklahoma City sends: Russell Westbrook, Kendrick Perkins, Hasheem Thabeet.

Philadelphia sends: Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes, Kwame Brown, and New Orleans’ 2014 first-rounder (top 5-protected). (Miami owns Philly’s protected 2014 first-rounder and Orlando owns their protected #1 in 2016.)

To make the trade somewhat fair, let’s say Turner and Young were pretty damn good with their opportunity in Philadelphia. You’ll see how this all plays out for the 76ers later.

For the Thunder, their offense suffocates. Durant averages 35 per game but on so-so (for him) splits of 46-37-85. Hawes and Ibaka don’t mesh well, Turner and Young can’t adapt to the role as OKC’s sixth and seventh men even with a pick-and-roll partner in Nick Collison, and Scott Brooks elects Kwame Brown to become his assistant coach rather than let him drag his ass up and down the floor 30 seconds per game. When Brooks gets fired for starting both Hawes and Ibaka, Kwame becomes the head coach. It’s a disaster. Well, you already know that since they finish 25-57.

But they do have their draft pick and New Orleans’. Also, there’s a pretty good chance none of this ever happens.

Team #3: Dallas Mavericks

Mark Cuban went through another summer of whiffing on prized free agents but landed a haul that at least wasn’t terrible. Is it enough to put Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks back into the postseason?

Record from a hat: 16-66

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Scenario: After a really, really bad start, Dallas decides to blow it up by shopping Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion. A team out East (to be revealed in the Eastern Conference post) will get in a trade, sending a blue chipper, expirings, another young prospect, and a draft pick back to the Mavs. Also, Vince Carter will be shipped to a former team of his in exchange for an aging spot shooter. Unfortunately, nobody bites on Jose Calderon‘s contract.

Tank Mode is engaged as Dallas rests Monroe and Calderon, among others, and emphasizes Monta Ball in order to put them in pole position for Andrew Wiggins. It works. Monta Ball is a resounding “success”.

Team #4: Memphis Grizzlies

Record from a hat: 42-40

The West is going to suck this year.

Scenario: Memphis does have a new coach, and they’re probably asking for too much of Mike Miller at this stage of his career, but that shouldn’t lead to a 14-win drop off. Other explanations could be nagging injuries and/or a desperation trade to get out of a large, guaranteed contract in exchange for expirings and draft picks.

In that case, a trade will go down with a team out East who, over the summer, made a surprising ascension from the bottom of the standings to possibly chasing a playoff bid. For Memphis, it doesn’t work out as planned and it doesn’t put their trading partner in the playoffs either. Shucks. More details about it in the post devoted to the Eastern Conference.

Regardless of Memphis’ trade that emphasizes the future, 42-40 will be just enough to make the playoffs out West.

Team #5: Houston Rockets

Will the Rockets blast off into contention?

Record from a hat: 52-30

They will! Finally, a sane pick from the hat that doesn’t force me to explore trades or stoop low enough to predict injuries.

Scenario: Dwight Howard will get his post ups, but sooner or later will have to run pick & roll. (Just put up with it, Dwight, and you can shoot as many free throws with your eyes closed as you want.) Omer Asik will definitely be trade bait but for the love of God please don’t trade Chandler Parsons he’s so hot right now.

It’s too bad New Orleans is in a race to get good right now. They don’t need a center like Asik right this minute but it’s a good fit if they want to make the playoffs versus rebuilding. More on this when the Pelicans are drawn.

For Houston, 52-30 seems about right in real life, give or take a few wins.

Team #6: Portland Trail Blazers

A (cheaply) revamped bench, two potential all-stars in Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge; where will the hat place them this year?

Record from a hat: 54-28

!!!

Scenario: The Blazers shore up their defense with Lillard and Batum making the most vast improvements on that end. Part of that also comes with an improved bench, even if C.J. McCollum misses a couple months.

Thomas Robinson becomes a candidate for the Sixth Man and Most Improved Player of the Year awards. Pairing him with Aldridge and Dorell Wright in the frontcourt becomes ridiculously effective on offense and not a massacre on defense. Portland also gets more out of Meyers Leonard in his second year, as well as every ounce of Mo Williams that he has left. McCollum comes back from injury and is efficient right off the bat. Also, they benefit from the hat’s predicted downfall of Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Memphis.

In real-life, Portland will be an exciting team to watch. Clearly the hat thinks so too.

Team #7: Sacramento Kings

New ownership, new arena in the future, and new bad contracts!

Record from a hat: 36-46

Scenario: As bad as this team was last year, they still won 28 games. Now, DeMarcus Cousins plays up to his raise. There’s also the addition by subtraction in Tyreke Evans and the progression in Isaiah Thomas that injects some much-needed success from a franchise that hasn’t had much to cheer for since…um…did Metta World Peace really lead this team to the playoffs in 2006?

Team #8: Phoenix Suns

Will Eric Bledsoe trick the hat into believing the Suns are a 64-18 squad?

Record from a hat: 17-65

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Long live the Tat.

Scenario: Eric Bledsoe will be a statistical freak, but it won’t translate to running a team well enough to even get over 20 wins. Also, the Suns keep Goran Dragic. Hm.

Marcin “Too Hot To” Gortat, on the other hand, is a more complicated matter. The teams who need a guy like Gortat don’t have the most desirable players who match up salary-wise. He ends up shipped to New Orleans for Ryan Anderson instead of the Pelicans trading Anderson to Houston. This way, Anderson gets dealt to a rebuilding team versus a contender and the Suns have several picks to offer. I doubt they’d throw one of their first rounders in the deal, but they could pony up a second round pick.

Team #9: Los Angeles Clippers

A favorite of mine to dominate the regular season only to flame out in the second round. Will the hat think the same?

Record from a hat: 56-26

Possibly.

Scenario: Jared Dudley and J.J. Redick fit in just fine and losing Bledsoe isn’t that big of a blow when the Clippers signed Darren Collison on the cheap.

The problems lie in their frontcourt. Who can be trusted in the fourth quarter in a Game 7? Who’s going to stop Marc Gasol, Tim Duncan, or Dwight Howard? B.J. Mullens sure isn’t. DeAndre Jordan had an impressive pre-season, but that’s nothing new. In the hat’s scenario, Doc won’t be able to get more consistency out of Jordan or Mullens, even though it would’ve gone a long way, possibly past the second round.

Team #10: New Orleans Pelicans

Ah, the Pistons of the West as far as crazy off-seasons are concerned. Will their gambles work out?

Record from a hat: 33-49

Bummer. Anthony Davis has been awesome in the pre-season too. The progression to an All-Star from Year 1 to Year 2 is a lot to ask for, but if anyone can do it it’s the lock for the #1 pick in the 2012 Draft before the lottery balls even played out.

But there’s the defense and the backcourt to worry about. If Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, and Jrue Holiday don’t work out together they could end up with what Chris Paul had to deal with in his last two years: An overpaid, mediocre supporting cast. There’s also the chase for a center when the Pelicans could keep Ryan Anderson and wait another year before searching for a big man to play alongside Davis, but they need to win now.

It’s too bad. There was a lot to be excited for when the Pelicans landed the first pick in the 2012 Draft, but then everything after drafting Anthony Davis happened. They can still be dangerous down the road, but so much needs to go right.

Scenario: The Brow’s progression from Year 1 to Year 2, from Rookie of the Year candidate to All-Star, is just one step in the right direction. However, the hat predicts a step back for Holiday, Evans, and Gordon. I actually think all three of those guys are better than what they’ve shown so far in their careers, but to have them all on the same team could be a bit much.

Team #11: Los Angeles Lakers

Uh oh.

Record from a hat: 45-37

…

Scenario: Kobe Bryant throws in his best performance since 2006? Wes Johnson resembles something of a basketball player? Nick Young is a candidate for the Sixth Man of the Year? Pau Gasol goes back to being Pau Gasol even with Mike D’Antoni at the helm? Steve Nash excels in D’Antoni’s system? Chris Kaman makes a few jump shots? The Lakers stay out of the bottom five in defensive efficiency? And Kobe remains content around the media and on Twitter? Of course he would if he’s playing like it’s 2006 and they make the playoffs?

Hopefully the hat doesn’t predict a title?

Team #12: Golden State Warriors

Record from a hat: 43-39

This isn’t the most ridiculous prediction ever. The Warriors went 47-35 last year and a lot of this season depends on Bogut’s health. There still isn’t much behind him in terms of solid offense and rim protection, though a Jermaine O’Neal resurgence would be nice.

Scenario: (Sigh) Nagging injuries from both Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut, stalled progression from Harrison Barnes and Klay Thompson, and missing the likes of Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry from last year’s squad is enough for the Warriors to underwhelm in 2014.

But, 43-39 is enough to make the playoffs in the hat’s NBA world. The real-life Warriors should duplicate their 2013 record if not snag home court advantage for at least one round of the playoffs.

Team #13: Denver Nuggets

One of the most unpredictable teams in the league this season thanks to their reliance on JaVale McGee. If only Kenneth Faried was seven feet tall with a jump shot.

Record from a hat: 52-30

Come. On. This is the same team that allowed 36 points to Kevin Durant and then 40 to Chris Paul. It’s only the pre-season, but still.

Clearly, the friggin’ hat disagrees.

Scenario: JaVale makes the major improvements we’ve hoped for all these years, becoming a consistently feared rim protector for 36 minutes in the process. It would also help Denver if they got the really good version of Nate Robinson instead of really bad, but this could be a game-by-game thing.

Team #14: Utah Jazz

The new home for Andris Biedrins and Richard Jefferson!

Record from a hat: 18-64

Scenario: This seems close enough to their real life record, but the Jazz should be better than Phoenix. They’re like the Western Conference’s version of the Orlando Magic: a lot of young intriguing pieces, only the Jazz have to make decisions soon on who they want to keep long-term. They already locked up Derrick Favors. How that dictates how much Enes Kanter makes will be intriguing. Can they keep them both past next season?

Team #15: San Antonio Spurs

Let’s see if the hat is more kind to the Spurs than Ray Allen was to them in the Finals:

Record from a hat: 37-45

Did everyone retire halfway through the season?

Scenario: Everyone retired halfway through the season.

Recap

  1. Los Angeles Clippers (56-26)
  2. Portland Trail Blazers (54-28)
  3. Houston Rockets (52-30)
  4. Denver Nuggets (52-30)
  5. Los Angeles Lakers (45-37)
  6. Golden State Warriors (43-39)
  7. Memphis Grizzlies (42-40)
  8. Minnesota Timberwolves (41-41)
  9. San Antonio Spurs (37-45)
  10. Sacramento Kings (36-46)
  11. New Orleans Pelicans (33-49)
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder (25-57)
  13. Utah Jazz (18-64)
  14. Phoenix Suns (17-65)
  15. Dallas Mavericks (16-66)

Stay tuned for even more bizarre predictions featuring the Eastern Conference.

The Celtics, the Lakers, and what only the 2007 Mavericks have done to them

2007, Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers October 22, 2013 Comments: 2

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Mediocrity has been a rarity for two of the NBA’s most storied franchises: the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers. Their accomplishments have been discussed several times such as the 33 championships, 52 Finals appearances overall, and over 6,000 regular season victories between the two.

Only once in over 60 years have both teams either missed the playoffs or finished below .500 in the same season. That was in 1994, just the second season since Larry Bird’s retirement and two seasons before a brief comeback by Magic Johnson. It’s a rude awakening when I normally think of that decade ending only yesterday.

The 2006-07 season was the last time both teams came in with average expectations. The Lakers, led by Kobe Bryant, Smush Parker, and Kwame Brown finished 41-41. Paul Pierce, Al Jefferson, a rookie named Rajon Rondo, and the Celtics limped to the finish line at 24-58, winning only 12 of their final 50 games. Their slump might’ve had something to do with Greg Oden and Kevin Durant being near-locks as 2007 NBA Draft participants. (For more 2007 nostalgia, check out a post I devoted to that entire year.)

2007 didn’t join 1994 where both teams missed the playoffs or finished below .500, but something else funky happened in the regular season and for the very first time in league history: A team won more games than the Celtics and Lakers combined.

That team was the Dallas Mavericks.

If not for the title run in 2011, mentioning the 2007 version of Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks might sting more than compliment. Even then, it’s worth noting there’s some degree of difficulty for a random team to win more than two other random ones, let alone the Celtics and Lakers. Last season, the two worst teams in the NBA last season, the Magic and Bobcats, combined for 41 wins. The 10th and 11th worst teams, Toronto and Portland, combined for 67. That 2007 Mavericks team is the last to match such an amount.

The likelihood of catching both the Celtics and the Lakers in underwhelming seasons and winning more than both of them combined speaks for itself. Dallas accomplished something nobody had done before despite opportunities for teams in the mid-90s, 2005, and 2006 to be the first to do so. Maybe Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls of 1993 and 1994 would’ve been the first, but that’s just one of several coulda-shoulda-wouldas with Jordan’s first retirement.

The mid-2010s may bring another opportunity for a team to join the likes of the ’07 Mavericks for multiple reasons: injuries to the Celtics and Lakers’ franchise cornerstones in 2013, a haul of very average players for each team, both conferences being more beefed up at the top, and the tankapalooza that will lead up to 2014 NBA Draft. The window to win more than the Celtics and Lakers combined could close after this season if A) the Lakers make a huge splash in free agency like they intend and B) Boston rebuilds successfully through a loaded draft.

For now, the chance is there.

Hopefully joining the ’07 Mavericks in a rare regular season feat doesn’t come with their playoff disappointment as well. If anything crazy happens, however, teams that win more games than the Celtics and Lakers combined in a single season win a championship four years later. 100 percent of the time.

My 2014 Dream Team — after a couple restrictions

2014 NBA Season, Boredom, Dream Teams October 12, 2013 Comments: 4

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Some dreams are more realistic and (somewhat) thoughtful than others. Introducing, my dream team within the confines of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement! Yeah, take that, everyone else who dreams of becoming an owner like Mikhail Prokhorov!

The NBA’s salary cap, for the most part, has become an invisible GM as far as determining which players to keep, sign, and trade every year. Only Mikhail Prokhorov and a few other owners could absorb the luxury tax of a dream team-ish lineup like Deron Williams, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Brook Lopez, and Joe Johnson though I doubt anyone dreams of having the last player mentioned.

For everyone else, a roster of their favorite players just isn’t possible without sweating profusely over the financial ramifications from going over the luxury tax level, which is at about $71 million. The salary cap itself is set at $58,679,000. It’s a soft one but for the sake of this post I won’t go over it, making it near-impossible to let Kobe Bryant soak up half my cap space and field a contender at the same time.

I also removed the option to throw darts at players still on rookie contracts. For the most part, they’re more cap-friendly compared to veterans with similar playing styles. That’s great, but it’s unrealistic to group a bunch of them together to form a star-studded under-25 squad.

And besides, why would I choose roster spots with darts when I’m so inaccurate I’d land 12 Bismack Biyombos? Maybe that’s how the Bobcats decide who they draft each year, but that’s a blog post for another time. This post involves a 12-man squad that may not be possible to assemble in real life, but it’s cap-friendly enough to build via a fantasy draft in NBA 2k14. Hopefully.

Let’s begin. All salaries are from Basketball-Reference:

Utility Player

LeBron James ($19,067,500)

If there wasn’t a salary cap, getting everything LeBron does for $19 million would be a steal. Well, except for the paranoia he triggers whenever he nears free agency.

I know I’m getting his excellent production from four positions though, maybe even five depending on how taxing it would be to play him at center. It would certainly be easier to hide LeBron on someone like Byron Mullens versus sticking him on Nikola Pekovic. I’ll start him at power forward but his versatility allows me to tinker with the rest of the starting lineup.

Small Forward

Andrei Kirilenko ($3,183,000)

Even in his low 30s, Kirilenko can still sometimes carry the burden of guarding the opposing team’s best wing. He’s also a master at doing things not seen in box scores: Perfectly timed cuts, having a personality that also makes him one of the friendliest for the media to talk to and possessing a Kermit voice that, if I ever played pickup ball against him, would take me out of my zone and send me into a world of confusion. It’s the opposite voice of a stereotypical Russian’s, like Mikhail Prokhorov’s. We need a video of Kirilenko and Prokhorov having a conversation together just to see how different each of their voices really are, though I can’t find one through a YouTube search. Both are great in their own ways.

If not for Kirilenko’s friendly contract, I would’ve went with Paul Millsap, whose contract at $19 million for two years is baffling when DeAndre Jordan and Al Jefferson make one to four million more than him. Both Millsap and Kirilenko have the potential to make for some interesting small ball and big lineups, but the $3 million contract makes Kirilenko a no-brainer. He allows me to pick a player or two on the rest of the roster who might otherwise be too pricey for a team I need to keep under the cap.

Starting Backcourt  

Stephen Curry ($9,887,642)

Stephen Curry’s molded himself into a point guard over the years, but he could do his fair share of spot shooting if LeBron were to handle point guard duties. Like Ray Allen, for example, Curry also forces the defense to attach to him without the ball, which often makes for 4-on-4 basketball. The less defenders to clutter the paint against LeBron, the better.

It should also be mentioned that Curry can single-handedly carry a team’s offense on his own, going on absurd streaks of scoring:

That can buy LeBron a few extra minutes on the bench, something that he would benefit from in the long run and especially through the postseason.

Also, that contract. What a bargain if Curry plays 70 games and every one in the playoffs.

Honorable mention: Mike Conley Jr. ($8,200,001—and that ‘1’ isn’t a typo), who has a better right hand—his off-hand—than half the NBA. Probably.

Danny Green ($3,762,500)

A cheap “3-and-D” guy, Danny Green could take the burden of guarding the team’s best guard and give Curry, LeBron, and/or Kirilenko extra rest on the defensive end. He’s also another player who will provide a ton of spacing for LeBron on offense, except he’s limited to spot-up threes. 95.7 percent of Green’s threes were assisted, but that’s fine since he knows his limitations. Green’s benefited from a second go-around with the Spurs and it would be interesting to see just how good of a role player he would be with LeBron as a teammate.

Center

Tim Duncan ($10,361,466)

There were a lot of players to pick and choose from at the center position. Joakim Noah ($11,100,000) was the toughest to leave off because he can log absurd minutes, brings a tenacity to every single game and continues to improve on the offensive end. Also receiving consideration was Al Horford ($12,000,000).

Tim Duncan’s at least $1 million cheaper and also happens to have mastered the game for some time now. That made is so unbelievable when he missed two bunnies that clinched the title for the Miami Heat. Everything else about the Finals felt like vintage Duncan. He performed like he did for the last 16 years.

You can also guarantee Duncan averages 20 points and 10 rebounds per-36 minutes, though he’d really only play 25-30 minutes every game. Who cares though. It’s my dream team and I want LeBron and Duncan on the same squad (as long it doesn’t involve the Olympics embarrassment of 2004).

Starting lineup payroll: $46,262,108

Bench

Ray Allen ($3,229,050)

At this stage of his career, there’s not much use for Allen outside of splendid three-point shooting—preferably in the corners where he shot 45 percent—and icing games with free throws. The damage he does on that end of the court makes him worthwhile, even if saying he’s a liability on defense is an understatement.

Al Harrington ($1,399,507)

Harrington supposedly lost 27 pounds this summer, but didn’t do a lot of running. Hmm.

But at 33 years old, he’s the cheap stretch-four the team needs around a guy like LeBron. He’s also a solid defensive rebounder, ranking in the top-40 in defensive rebounding percentage in 2012, his last healthy season. At 34th in the league in that ranking, he’s sandwiched between the likes of David Lee and Kevin Durant. Not bad.

If Harrington can put in a healthy 16th season at his veteran’s minimum salary, that’s great. If not, there’s an ‘energy’ player off the bench in…

Dante Cunningham ($2,000,000)

Cunningham put up the highest usage rate of his career last season, mostly thanks to the injury barrage that plagued the Minnesota Timberwolves’ 2013 season and saw his production drop as a result. There just isn’t much a difference when he logs minutes in the 30s each game and in the 20s.

Regardless, he showed an improved mid-range jumper after his lackluster 2012 outing where he made only about a third of his attempts from ten feet to the arc. That number jumped to 40 percent last season and it would be expected to take another spike while playing with the likes of LeBron and Duncan. Hopefully his mid-range game forces my backup center to plant his ass on the block and stay there.

Defensively, Cunningham’s pretty versatile. He’s athletic enough to guard a few wings, but his height may plague him in the post. Still, I’d take him over LeBron’s real-life aging power forward off the bench in Udonis Haslem.

Devin Harris ($1,272,279)

Devin Harris had an unusual summer as he initially agreed to a $9 million, three-year contract for Dallas. But then he suffered a toe injury, followed by resigning with the Mavs again for $1.3 million. Rarely will a single toe be worth that much.

What Harris should give Dallas though is about as much as I’d want him to give my team: a viable backup point guard who can just, you know, run an offense. Hopefully. I’m not so confident about that. Good thing I can pick up another guy to run an offense from time to time in…

Kwame Brown ($2,945,901)

Just kidding.

Beno Udrih ($1,272,279)

Udrih’s another point guard who’s signed for the minimum (he’s a Knick now). He had a successful stint with Orlando, at least statistically, with 13.4 points and eight assists per-36-minutes. His assist percentage was in the top 25 in the league last season, ranking just ahead of Andre Miller and behind Steve Nash.

That didn’t necessarily net him a big payday, but the Knicks couldn’t offer much more than the minimum salary. Unfortunately, neither can I. In my dream team, though, he’s my second or third string point guard (depending on the mood I’m in while dreaming).

Ronnie Brewer ($1,186,459)

What happened to Brewer anyway? He seemed like a useful player heading into last season even though he had arthroscopic knee surgery last September. Then he was traded from New York halfway through the season and only played in 14 games for OKC. Now, he’s in Houston and only $100k of his contract is guaranteed.

Did I mention he’s only 28?

But he can’t shoot and if he can’t defend either then he’s useless. It wouldn’t kill my team if Brewer was ineffective. Green, James, Kirilenko, and at times Cunningham can be solid defenders on the perimeter, but Brewer’s absence might tax Green, my starting shooting guard, which could trickle down to the bigs defending the paint. Those bigs are Tim Duncan and…

Andray Blatche ($1,375,604)

!!!!!!

Blatche is still a mystery on what he really is as a player (he’s kind of a weirdo in general). He showed signs of life last season with Brooklyn, posting a PER of 21.9 but is on a super friendly contract thanks to his resentment towards the Wizards front office. He also gets an unusual amount of steals (two per-36-minutes), though that doesn’t mean we can assign him to lock up the opposition’s best perimeter player just yet or ever.

Blatche is the only center coming off the bench though, so he’ll have a lot of pressure to anchor the defense when Duncan is off the floor. It’s scary giving him that much responsibility. Hopefully the risk pays off in NBA 2K14.

Lineup: $46,262,108

Bench: $11,637,078

Total payroll: $57,899,186

Amount under the cap: $779,814

Killing time on a Friday night constructing a fake NBA team: Priceless (and possibly hopeless)

We’ll see if this roster changes by All-Star Weekend.

What’s the big deal about half-court heaves?

Boredom October 7, 2013 Comments: 3

The half-court heave: Arguably basketball’s most exciting way to score, save for a dunk or game-winning bucket.

Check out the crowd before and after these makes by Alonzo Gee and Jarrett Jack:

Even misses are exciting:

The heaves are like a golfer on their second shot of a par five 18th hole, going for a green that has zero hazards surrounding it. Rarely, if ever, will the golfer score eagle or better (or even a par if their putting is as bad as mine), but it doesn’t hurt to try.

That’s not how some players in the NBA see it though. Some see a massive pond surrounding the green, with alligators and all sorts of other potential danger lurking. Maybe the latter is an exaggeration, but not every player sees a last-second heave as a win-win. It’s viewed instead like a harm to their shooting percentages. After all, about 98 percent of all half-court to full-court heaves are missed. Since 2001, players are 104-for-4,451 from that extended area, according to Basketball-Reference. (For a yearly breakdown, click here.)

That’s a whopping 2.3 percent that drop. The effective field goal percentage (when taking into account that a three-point shot is worth more than a two) isn’t much better at 3.5. To reach an EFG% of 50, 1,483 of those 4,451 half-court to full-court shots would have to go in, or the 104 that dropped would have to be worth about 43 points each. If that were the case, several fans would have defined roles on NBA rosters.

For those who either don’t take the last-second shot or wait just after the buzzer to let them fly, the team is negatively impacted on a situation that should normally be a win-win. Back in February, Royce Young posted a great breakdown detailing how Thunder coach Scott Brooks practically begged for his players to take the last-second heaves, despite the odds being against them.

From Young’s piece at the Daily Thunder:

“We talked about it, about seven weeks ago maybe, couple months ago, and we talked about it,” Brooks said. “I said ‘We have to shoot that shot. There’s still time in the game — shoot it.’ The only time we don’t shoot it is if we’re up and it’s the last seconds because you don’t want to do that.

“We had that talk and somebody on our team did not take it that same night, and then we all got on him,” he said. “The next night, somebody made that shot.”

There was a divide between what each Thunder player would do if they had the ball in the backcourt with the clock winding down, most notably between stat-conscious players like Kevin Durant and Kevin Martin and others willing to let the heaves fly like Russell Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha.

From Young’s piece once again:

How do Thunder players feel about the halfcourt heave? Should it be counted as an attempt? And do they pull the just-after-the-buzzer move? I asked some of them:

Kevin Durant: “It depends on what I’m shooting from the field. First quarter if I’m 4-for-4, I let it go. Third quarter if I’m like 10-for-16, or 10-for-17, I might let it go. But if I’m like 8-for-19, I’m going to go ahead and dribble one more second and let that buzzer go off and then throw it up there. So it depends on how the game’s going.”

Kevin Martin: “Yes, I’ve noticed it a lot. For myself? I like to be considered an efficient scorer, so I think that’ll answer your question on how I approach that shot … [Brooks] said something about if no one wants to shoot it, go up and grab it. Don’t be the person to grab it and wait. And then I think Eric Maynor hit a shot or Russ hit a shot … If they changed that rule [to not count it], I’d probably shoot a lot more of them. Some people like to shoot the halfcourt shot, some people don’t.”

Russell Westbrook: “No. Nope … If I was considering about [statistics] I’d do a lot of shit different.”

Thabo Sefolosha: “Personally if I have it, I shoot it. I’ve seen players not shoot it at all, or seen players shoot it late. I’ve seen that before … [Brooks] did, he mentioned it. In the team, most of us, I think we take the shot. But you see players that don’t do it … You gotta count it [as a shot]. You gotta count it. It’s a shot. But who cares really. I don’t care about that kind of stuff. One more shot, make or miss, is not going to break or make me, so I shoot it.”

Even Shane Battier expressed his thoughts about the last-second heaves in an interview with Sam Amick of USA Today Sports:

“If you’re a true shooter, those shots add up,” he said, while making it clear that his view was also the opinion of most, if not all, NBA players. “It’s not worth it (to shoot them). Even though statistically speaking, it’s a positive – it’s a plus-play (in terms of probabilities of success). If you shot every buzzer beater, you’re going to make one out of – whatever the odds are.

“Even the heave is a plus-play. But unfortunately we’re not judged on the plus-plays. We’re judged on (shooting) percentages. I think they should take the heave out of the stat book. It’s common sense.”

Bricking half-court shots in the beginning of the season might cause a worrisome downtick in shooting percentages, but they would be hardly noticeable by the end. If anything, fantasy basketball owners who drafted the heavers are likely impacted more than the heavers themselves.

Besides, whether Durant’s shooting 8-for-19 or 8-for-20, it’s still a bad shooting night. I actually thought it would be the other way around for him, more willing to take the low-percentage shot while having a bad game versus a good one. He was also in a chase last year for the 50-40-90 club (50 percent from the field, 40 percent from three and 90 percent on free throws), which he eventually achieved with 51-41.6-90.5 splits.

To fall below the 50-40-90 club, Durant would have had to take and miss 14 heaves, which would’ve been the highest yearly total in Basketball-Reference’s database that dates back to 2001. Jason “White Chocolate” Williams and Andre Miller each attempted 12 in 2001. Miller’s the most notorious heaver, going 3-for-102 over the last 13 seasons. Jason Kidd has the most makes with four (out of 44 attempts), but nobody comes to Andre Miller’s total attempts. Steve Blake is second with 46, while making only one. (There’s a few more players listed in a bit.)

The worrying about percentages is overblown when looking at Miller, whose heaves barely put a damper on his three-point shooting percentages. For his career, he’s 173-for-825 over 14 seasons. That’s good for a measly 21 percent. Take the heaves away and that’s bumped up to 23.5, only a 2.5 percent difference for someone who doesn’t even take one three-point attempt per game. The difference for Durant would be much smaller.

Season by season, Miller’s half-court attempts matter only slightly more. He took 12 heaves in the 2000-01 season and made one. Take the misses away and Miller’s three-point percentage goes from 26.6 to 32.1. That may seem like a big deal, but it still only amounts to Miller making 17 threes over 82 games. Even Rajon Rondo has done that. Miller probably made his threes in as similar a fashion as Rondo: from either being left wide open or with the shot clock winding down.

Besides three-point shooting, Miller does just about everything else well for a point guard and, as a result, has carved out a long-lasting career. The heaves won’t affect his chances at getting a new contract when it’s time to negotiate.

What about sharpshooters?

In the quotes by Battier, there was worry about players being judged by their percentages, likely concerning those who take the majority of their shots from beyond the arc. All-stars who get picked apart, volume shooters, and even sharpshooters (that Battier was likely concerning) have all taken their fair share of heaves throughout their careers though and have done just fine with finding teams to play for. Here are some of each:

Steve Blake: 1-46

Kobe Bryant: 0-44

Jason Kidd: 4-44

Baron Davis: 2-43

Jamal Crawford: 0-39

  • Had a terrible 2012 season yet got a four-year, $21.35 million contract from the Clippers the following summer.

J.R. Smith: 0-34

Andre Iguodala: 1-31

LeBron James: 0-30

Ray Allen: 0-30

  • Yep, one of the best shooters ever takes buzzer-beating heaves.

Nate Robinson: 1-29

  • He’s actually a pretty good three-point shooter and found his way to a new contract with the Nuggets.

Carmelo Anthony: 0-27

  • 27 heaves, even with a reputation literally as a chucker.

Martell Webster: 0-22

  • Got a four-year, $22 million contract from the Wiz this summer.

Dirk Nowitzki: 0-20

It’s still quite weird that the most heaves anyone has taken over their career, besides Miller’s, is 46 by Steve Blake. LeBron’s averaged only three heaves per season and it feels like there should be an extra zero at the end of the total by J.R. Smith.

What can be done to encourage more of these attempts from long, long range?

I left a quote out from Sam Amick’s interview with Shane Battier about what players would do if heaves were left out of the stat book. Here it is:

And if they did change the rule book to reflect this stance?

“You’d have guys fighting to take that shot, because it’s a hell of a fun shot,” he said. “We shoot those shots every day in practice.”

So fans love heaves and, deep down, players love them too.

The most simple solution to increase the frequency of them would be to only count those that go in, like a sacrifice bunt. It won’t go into the box scores if it’s a miss.

Not counting heaves in the stat book, unless they go in, also puts fantasy basketball owners of Andre Miller at ease. As for sports bettors who often take the under on scoring totals, good thing heaves rarely go in and don’t count for 40 points (yet). 

Until then, we’ll see if attempts from beyond half-court either stay steady or unfortunately decline. So far, so good, at least in the pre-season: 

It’ll be interesting to see if the fearless heaves continue once the regular season kicks off, or if more will be made by fans than actual NBA players.

A follow up that post can be found here.