Minnesota Timberwolves and their five weeks of hell

Minnesota Timberwolves January 24, 2013 Leave a comment

On December 15, the T-Wolves squeaked out an overtime victory against Dallas, increasing their winning streak to four games. The faces of the franchise–Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love–were on their way back into the rotation.

Rubio dazzled fans in his first game of the season with eight points, nine assists and three steals in just 18 minutes of play. Love didn’t play that night but would be available for their next game, rookie guard Alexey Shved became the most intriguing player on the T-Wolves (like a smaller version of Hedo Turkoglu), Nikola Pekovic wreaked havoc in the paint, Andrei Kirilenko fitted in seamlessly, and the second unit was one of the highest-scoring in the league.

The Timberwolves were 12-9 and seventh in the Western Conference with a winnable game at Orlando two days away. Healthy again, it was perfectly acceptable to see the Wolves make a run at home court advantage in the first round. It also would’ve been the first time Minnesota finished the season above .500 since 2005. If that doesn’t feel forever ago, this will: Michael Olowokandi, Latrell Sprewell and Sam Cassell were on that team.

Well, the Timberwolves blew a 15-point third quarter lead against the Magic and lost. It started a five-week, 17-game stretch that would decide their season beginning with Miami, Oklahoma City and New York and ending with Houston, Atlanta, and Brooklyn. The overall winning percentage of all the teams they would play was .600.

The Timberwolves sputtered. They started the stretch with a record of 12-10 but ended 17-22, losing seven of their last eight games. Their losses weren’t pretty, either, losing by an average of 11.7 points.

The injuries continued to pile up. Kevin Love was gone again, this time until March after another surgery on his hand. Shved and Pekovic, two players who had upped their game, were also out due to nagging ankle and quadriceps injuries, respectfully. A total of six players from their opening day rotation were out. Josh Howard, signed mid-season for depth on the wings after Chase Budinger and Brandon Roy went down, was another casualty. For Howard it was a hyper-extended knee. Even head coach Rick Adelman missed time due to his sick wife and has yet to return.

Beyond the injuries was a frustrating trend where the Timberwolves either built a nice lead in the first half and blew it in the second or were blown out from the start of the game. Minnesota’s last in third quarter points (21.7) and 21st in fourth quarter points (22.9), according to TeamRankings.com, and it’s where teams have cut their deficit. Minnesota held a 14-point halftime lead at Atlanta, a 17-point one versus lottery-bound New Orleans, and led late against New York and Houston only to blow the opportunities in the final couple of minutes. A 5-12 stretch should have been 9-8.

And when the Timberwolves lose a lead it’s tougher than usual for them to get it back. They’re dead last in three point percentage and they don’t score well in transition. According to TeamRankings.com, Minnesota is 23rd in the league at 10.7 fast break points per game. Toronto sits in last place at 9.0 while Houston is first at 18.4.

Minnesota also doesn’t have a consistent crunch time scorer that can step up when the shot clock is winding down. This was most evident versus New York and Houston. Barea’s capable of slicing into the lane and getting a shot off or creating space for a three as he did in a victory against Oklahoma City, but that also comes with a bad side of his streaky scoring and a clear mismatch on the other end of the floor. Brandon Roy was supposed to help in crunch time but his season and career are likely lost, to the dismay of NBA fans everywhere.

On defense, they’re only average at turning teams over. In block and steal rates, they’re 12th and 14th, respectively. Both rates could rise as Rubio and Greg Stiemsma log more minutes, but that means a hit to several offensive numbers.

What Minnesota has been great at is getting to the line, but even that will take a hit as long as Pekovic is sidelined. Kevin Love also has a lot to do with their free throw rates, doubling most teammates with a team-leading 8.3 free throws per 36 minutes. As stated earlier, Love will miss significant time.

This isn’t meant to rip Minnesota to shreds. The last two weeks have especially been brutal, but how far could they really go while being bit by the injury Godzilla? They’re probably doing the best they could through the first half of the season.

And you know what? Their record is better than the Lakers’. Granted, the Lakers have gone through a few injuries of their own but they also happen to boast four future Hall of Famers, have resources Minnesota could only dream of having, and also inherited a dynasty several decades ago. (Sorry about that last one, but I had to.) It really just looks like Minnesota has run out of gas and so have I, falling asleep while watching last night’s game versus Brooklyn.

I see Minnesota finishing 2013 around 30-52, showing signs of hope when most of the team is back in April but continuing their downswing until then. They just can’t play a good full game. Here’s my prediction for Minnesota before the season even started.

The good news is they play Washington (9-31) and Charlotte (10-32) over the weekend. It’s a great opportunity to get some momentum before heading into a six-game home stand that will last 10 days. That includes facing the Clips, Spurs, and Knicks, but at least they won’t have to travel. If the Timberwolves can get on a roll and prove my 30-win prediction wrong, I wouldn’t complain. This season has been impossible to predict accurately with all of the injuries.

Mavericks can still make a playoff push

Dallas Mavericks January 19, 2013 1 Comment

Dallas’ unremarkable season continued Friday night with a second straight overtime loss to Oklahoma City. Dirk Nowitzki showed flashes (but only flashes) of what he’s capable of. He went just five for 19 from the field, but canned a jumper in overtime that gave Dallas an early three-point lead.

Unfortunately for them, Kevin Durant and Oklahoma City continued their tear through the NBA and finished the Mavs off for a three-point victory. The loss for Dallas dropped them to 17-24 in a (surprise, surprise) loaded Western Conference, four games down from eighth-place Portland.

But does Dallas still have hope? With the Lakers in desperation mode and Houston also in the playoff mix, the odds are definitely against the Mavericks.

That doesn’t mean it’s over (yet).

Imagine if OKC holds on to the number one seed in the Western Conference and Dallas has picked up serious steam in the second half, finishing 27-14, 44-38 overall, and the eighth seed in the West. Isn’t that a matchup that the Spurs and Clippers would love to watch the Thunder battle against in the first round of the playoffs?

Consider the history between Dallas and Oklahoma City. Nowitzki’s usually been stellar against Oklahoma City, averaging 32.6 points per game in the regular season since 2009. He’s averaging 33.9 if you subtract his lackluster performance on Friday. Against Oklahoma City in the playoffs, he’s scored 29.8 points per game.

It’s obvious that Nowitzki right now isn’t what he was two years ago or even last year, but Dallas can fly under the radar if he can get his legs under him sometime soon.

Kevin Durant has exploded against Dallas this season. He’s having his best season yet and one of the greatest offensive seasons ever, but he’s averaging a pedestrian (to him) 27.3 points per game versus Dallas in the playoffs and 28.6 in the regular season since 2010. It’s likely those numbers would climb, though, if the Thunder meet Dallas in the playoffs once again. He’s been so efficient to the point that he could make the 50-40-90 club.

But that doesn’t mean Oklahoma City would have it easy against the Mavericks. The Thunder have let leads slip away in the last seconds of their last two matchups. (Thanks to Darren Collison and O.J. Mayo.)

And don’t forget last season’s first round of the playoffs. It could’ve gone a very different route if Durant doesn’t save Oklahoma City from losing the first game of that series. The Thunder clearly have the upper hand, but the Mavericks have a knack for giving them all they can handle.

But, first thing’s first. Dallas has to take care of business now. Can they seriously get back into the fold? Let’s look at the last two playoff seeds which are held by Utah and Portland, despite negative point differentials.

Portland’s overachieved with a bench that’s as effective as an expired jar of peanut butter. They’ve also played a soft schedule, facing only 18 games against teams with a record above .500. That’s the lowest amount in the entire league. Meanwhile, Utah seems to be headed for another season of .500 ball. They’re terrific at home (12-4) but lackluster on the road (9-15).

Dallas’ schedule right now and in April also gives them a chance to get back into the mix. In their next 13 games they play Orlando, Phoenix, Portland, and Golden State all twice. Defeating Portland twice, though unlikely, would be a real step in the right direction. Also, Golden State might be 23-15 but they’ve fallen off the tracks as of late, losing five of their last six against a stiff schedule.

In that 13-game stretch, they have seven home games but will be on the road for five of their first seven. From there, they have a five-game home stand and no back-to-backs overall. That’s huge if they want to get their best out of Dirk as he comes back from arthroscopic surgery on his right knee.

Winning ten games during that stretch isn’t that crazy. They have six very winnable games against Sacramento, Orlando, and Phoenix. Going 4-3 or 5-2 in the other seven games would put Dallas right in the mix. It’s unlikely Dallas gets that hot, but, like Dallas’ playoff hopes overall, there’s still a chance.

And then there’s the last month of the regular season. Dallas starts with the Lakers and Denver in the first two games of April, but the schedule gets significantly lighter from there. Their last seven games feature two against New Orleans, one against Phoenix and one against Sacramento. Given the history of how lottery teams perform in April, Dallas has a favorable finish to the rest of the season.

The front office still has something to say about contending, too. Mark Cuban, like usual, is going to be a wildcard as the trade deadline approaches. He’s said he’s open to trades coming his way. Just for fun, I thought of Dallas sending Chris Kaman and picks to Cleveland for Anderson Vaerjao. Varejao’s injury all but kills this potential trade. Still, Cleveland would pick up cap space for next summer and continue to rebuild while Dallas gets an All-Star caliber big man in return.

Could Dallas try to pry DeMarcus Cousins away from Sacramento? I think Seattle Sacramento holds on to Cousins for one more season before seriously considering moving him. His rookie contract is a great bargain for the talent he has.

Dallas could also look into trading with Utah for either Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap. Millsap, right now, is the cheaper of the two at $8.6 million compared to Jefferson’s $15 million. They could also take Raja Bell off of Utah’s hands for one of many of Dallas’ point guards.

Even though Cuban is open to trades, I highly doubt he would dangle O.J. Mayo. He’s been breathtaking in the open court and terrific from downtown, shooting a career-best 42 percent on five attempts per game. Mayo’s hit a wall as of late, going 45-109 and 10-37 from three, but things will be a lot easier for him if he can get open looks from Nowitzki.

He’s been a terrific bargain: 18 points per game for $4 million. A player option means he’s likely going to hit the market this summer for more money, but he’s obviously worth keeping if Dallas is going to make a push for the playoffs.