Category Archives: 2014 NBA Season

Could Roy Hibbert really block more shots than an entire team?

2014 NBA Season, Indiana Pacers, Stats December 3, 2013 Comments: 2

The rest of the league has finally caught up to Roy Hibbert’s blocks. Well, for the most part.

Just two weekends ago, Hibbert had 56 blocks in 13 games, good for more than eight teams: Washington (55 blocks), Orlando (54), Minnesota (54), New York (53), Memphis (52), Brooklyn (52), Chicago (47), and Sacramento (34).

But Hibbert has been in a “slump” since then, blocking just six shots in his last five games with two of those matchups coming against teams most often rejected: Minnesota and Charlotte. Seven of the eight previously listed teams caught up or surpassed the 7’2” behemoth, leaving only Sacramento behind. The current block score between Hibbert and the Kings: 62-48 in Hibbert’s favor.

Can he keep this up for a whole season?

Not since 2009 has one player single-handedly blocked more shots than an entire team, when Dwight Howard had 231 to the New York Knicks’ 204, the lowest of any team in NBA history save for the lockout-shortened 1998-99 season, according to Basketball-Reference. That Knicks squad, coached by Mike D’Antoni, played a ton of small ball with David Lee in the middle and Al Harrington at the ‘4’. The same thing also happened to the Knicks of ’08, led by Isiah Thomas where they blocked less shots (213) than Marcus Camby (285) and Josh Smith (227) while going possibly too big with Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph.

This year’s Kings fit somewhere in between those two Knicks rosters. They’re neither as mobile up front as D’Antoni’s Knicks nor as large as the Knicks of 2008, but there’s a chance Sacramento is equally as dysfunctional as the two. So there’s that.

The Kings just don’t have the personnel up front to be even an average shot-blocking team. DeMarcus Cousins can swat some but he fouls 5.1 times per 36 minutes, and there’s little protection when he’s in foul trouble or needs a breather. Chuck Hayes is an immovable force but that’s for better and for worse, Derrick Williams is like Blake Griffin in the way his athleticism doesn’t translate to blocking shots (and it doesn’t help that he logs time at small forward), Jason Thompson at least looks like he could get up and swat a couple, but his foul rate so far, 6.0 per-36, hasn’t helped and Patrick Patterson, like mostly every other power forward on the Kings, is undersized and a gamble on defense (though offensively he fits in).

Some of the lack of blocks can be attributed to the Kings allowing the least amount of shots within the restricted area by a comfortable margin, according to NBA.com, but there has to be a correlation between that and leading the league in fouling. Still, despite opposing teams scoring at will once they’re near the rim (68.4 percent, last in the league), Sacramento’s allowed only 20.1 attempts from there. Second-place Washington has allowed 23.3 attempts while Indiana sits in seventh place at 24.8.

And really, the Kings are safe from breaking the ’09 Knicks record for the least amount of blocks in an 82-game season. They’re on pace for 262 which is doable when DeMarcus Cousins, as unpredictable as he can be, has at least been consistently durable throughout his career. An injury (or suspension) to him, though, and things could get interesting.

Minnesota also lurks as a possible candidate to be outblocked by Hibbert. There’s not much between a slashing guard and the rim when Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic are the frontline, but guys like Dante Cunningham, Ronny Turiaf, and Gorgui Dieng are threats in their limited playing time off the bench. Cunningham’s the only player consistently in the rotation, though, while Turiaf is out with a fractured elbow and Dieng has been slow to adjust to the NBA, fouling 7.9 times per-36. The Timberwolves make up for the lack of a rim presence by forcing turnovers and not fouling. When that doesn’t work, though, it’s kind of a really big problem.

And some of this weird accomplishment of blocking more shots than an entire team is up to Hibbert, after all. Right now, his foul rate of 3.7 per 36 minutes isn’t an outlier; it’s back down to about where it was in 2012. His blocking frequency is more of a concern. Only 26 times in NBA history has a player blocked eight percent of field goal attempts while on the floor and playing over 70 games, according to Basketball-Reference, the latter necessary should Hibbert block more than Sacramento or Minnesota. That may seem like a realistic rate for an entire season but Manute Bol, Jim McIlvaine, and Shawn Bradley account for over half of those 26 occurrences. That, and only five times has a player had a block rate of eight percent while logging 30 minutes per game.

Like DeMarcus Cousins though, Hibbert has been durable throughout his career. And like in the previous paragraph, his foul rate is down which has allowed him to play a couple more minutes per game.

Besides, the statistics aren’t that much of an outlier when his work over the off-season got the attention of Grantland, among others. He also dwarfed Tim Duncan, Tiago Splitter, and Ian Mahinmi in one specific, amusing photo. All that hard work is aimed towards helping the Pacers with their journey to a championship, not some weird statistical accomplishment that doesn’t accomplish anything if it doesn’t come with all the little things a great defense like Indiana’s is made of.

Maybe the last five games are just variance anyway, balancing out the ridiculous start Hibbert had. We’re still in “SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT!” territory, after all. But if blocking more shots than an entire team comes within the confines of playing great defense, it would be one of multiple ways showing how Hibbert has become a premier force of nature.

For more odd accomplishments I hope for this season, check this out. 

The good, the bad, and the ugly shooting stats from SportVU

2014 NBA Season, Sport VU December 2, 2013 1 Comment

sportvu

We’re now one month into the NBA season, but also one month into sorting through STATS LLC’s SportVU Player Tracking system where stats from hockey assists to a player’s speed can be tracked, among other things. (Shameless promotion: I wrote about my first impressions of it here.)

And though it’s still too early to draw permanent impressions from information it’s spat out, some of it is still glaring like shooting percentages, for example. It’s easy to decipher between a pull-up jumper and a catch-and-shoot situation, making those two statistics a couple of the easiest to sort through the good, bad, and ugly that I handpicked and posted here.

For ‘the good’ and ‘the bad’, I took a handful of players from each category I thought qualified while one special player made ‘the ugly’.

I also included two other SportVU categories: Drives and Defensive Impact to go along with Pull-Up and Catch and Shoot.

Anyway, enjoy:

Pull-Up

The good:

FGM FGA FG% 3PTM 3PTA 3PT%
Patty Mills 21 37 56.8% 5 7 71.4%
Dirk Nowitzki 41 86 48.3% 2 4 50%
O.J. Mayo 40 84 47.6% 9 15 60%
Eric Bledsoe 36 77 46.8% 10 22 45.5%
Kevin Durant 52 115 45.2% 11 21 52.4%

This is all quite amazing. Bledsoe, a perceived brick thrower last year, has been hot this season. It’s one example of why I wrote some of the stats being glaring. These all may be small sample sizes right now, but they catch the eye nonetheless and make me curious if they hold up in the long run.

The bad:

  FGM FGA FG% 3PTM 3PTA 3PT%
Steve Nash 9 38 23.7% 2 6 33.3%
Luke Ridnour 9 46 19.6% 1 9 11.1%
Lance Stephenson 5 30 16.7% 0 4 0%
Tyreke Evans 7 43 16.3% 0 7 0%
J.R. Smith 10 62 16.1% 1 17 5.9%

Even with his improvements across the board, I still think Lance Stephenson shoots with his eyes closed.

The ugly:

  FGM FGA FG% 3PTM 3PTA 3PT%
Corey Brewer 0 30 0% 0 8 0%

Kevin Love‘s outlet passes make up for this.

Catch and Shoot

The good:

FGM FGA FG% 3PTM 3PTA 3PT%
Harrison Barnes 18 27 66.7% 12 20 60%
Andre Iguodala 24 39 61.5% 21 34 61.8%
LeBron James 21 36 58.3% 18 30 60%
Anderson Varejao 27 48 56.3% 0 4 0%
Ryan Anderson 28 52 53.8% 26 46 56.5%

Could someone make this a 5-man lineup and see if anyone dribbles?

The ugly:

FGM FGA FG% 3PTM 3PTA 3PT%
Jeff Teague 8 35 22.9% 8 31 23.3%
Trey Burke 4 20 20% 4 14 28.6%
Reggie Bullock 4 22 18.2% 4 21 19%
Eric Bledsoe 3 17 17.6% 2 15 13.3%
Alexey Shved 3 18 16.7% 3 15 20%

There’s Eric Bledsoe again. Another notable is Reggie Bullock, who has the potential to carve out a career as a three-and-D wing, one the Clippers could use right now but he hasn’t provided much so far.

The ugly:

FGM FGA FG% 3PTM 3PTA 3PT%
Jamaal Tinsley 0 13 0 0 13 0

Who knows if Tinsley can revive these numbers. He was waived three weeks ago by the Jazz.

Defensive Impact

The good:

OPP FGM at rim per game OPP FGA at rim per game OPP FG% at rim
Brook Lopez 3.0 8.8 34.1%
Roy Hibbert 3.6 9.9 36.9%
Chris Kaman 2.2 5.8 37.7%
John Henson 2.3 5.7 40.0%
Bismack Biyombo 2.1 5.3 40.5%

Chris Kaman making a list like this is so much better than one about centers who take wayyy too many jumpers. Also worth noting is John Henson, who in time can form a nice rim-protecting duo with Larry Sanders (whenever the latter plays again).

The bad:

OPP FGM at rim per game OPP FGA at rim per game OPP FG% at rim
DeAndre Jordan 5 8.4 59.2%
J.J. Hickson 3.3 5.4 59.8%
Gustavo Ayon 3.3 5.4 60.5%
Al Jefferson 3.8 6.1 61.8%
Anderson Varejao 4.1 6.4 63.3%

Before the season, it sounded like DeAndre Jordan was going to be Defensive Player of the Year, so this disappoints me intensely.

The ugly:

OPP FGM at rim per game OPP FGA at rim per game OPP FG% at rim
Udonis Haslem 1.8 2.4 72.7%

Who knows just how much of an impact Haslem will be going forward since Michael Beasley is logging consistent (AND PRODUCTIVE!!!) minutes off the bench.

Drives

The good:

FG% on drives Total Drives Player PTS on Drives Drives per game PPG on Drives Team PPG on drives
Manu Ginobili 75.0% 53 42 3.1 2.5 4.1
LeBron James 68.4% 92 72 5.4 4.2 6.6
Andre Iguodala 66.7% 32 15 2.5 1.2 3.3
Jeremy Lin  65.4% 137 96 8.6 6 10.6
Tony Parker 64.5% 154 111 9.6 6.9 11.3

You can pick and choose which player is more meaningful when driving to the rim, with LeBron likely being a favorite.

The bad:

FG% on drives Total Drives Player PTS on Drives Drives per game PPG on Drives Team PPG on drives
Vince Carter  33.3% 50 34 2.9 2 3.1
Deron Williams  33.3% 39 10 4.3 1.1 4.1
Corey Brewer 33.3% 37 20 1.9 1.1 2.3
O.J. Mayo 27.6% 47 22 3.1 1.5 2.9
Russell Westbrook  21.7% 90 35 7.5 2.9 7.1

Surely Russell Westbrook’s percentages will bounce back. I worry about Corey Brewer’s though. He’s like a paper airplane: once you let him fly, you have no idea where he’ll land. It’s made for several “noooo…yes!” moments and vice versa.

The ugly:

FG% on drives Total Drives Player PTS on Drives Drives per game PPG on Drives Team PPG on drives
Jose Calderon 0% 30 2 1.8 0.1 1.7

This isn’t really terrible since Jose Calderon is in the top 50 in hockey assists at least. He rarely gets into the paint anyway compared to the rest of the league’s guards, though the points he generates per drive is more similar to those in ‘the bad’ category than ‘the good’.

Through 17 games, Calderon’s stats when driving to the rim are more perplexing than ugly.

All statistics are from NBA.com. 

The rise and fall of Derrick Williams through trade rumors

2014 NBA Season, Minnesota Timberwolves, Sacramento Kings November 26, 2013 Comments: 2

May 17, 2011

Despite having the most lottery balls, Minnesota ends up with the second overall pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. It all but leads to the Timberwolves either drafting Derrick Williams or trading the pick.

May 19, 2011

The Pacers are making seriously play for the No. 2 pick with Danny Granger, Michael Beasley, and Ricky Rubio also being involved.

Royce Young of CBS’ Eye on Basketball with a nice take on why Rubio and Beasley were involved:

I can’t say that I quite understand why Rubio and Beasley were also included in the deal, but hey, it’s David Kahn and I’m not going to start posing questions that have no answers.

However, Kahn all but laughed off the rumors:

Talks between the two teams would continue though. Oh, yes, they would.

June 21, 2011

Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! reports more discussions between the Pacers and Timberwolves:

With an eye on drafting Arizona’s Derrick Williams, the Indiana Pacers have discussed a package including center Roy Hibbert (notes) and the 15th pick for the Minnesota Timberwolves’ second overall pick, league sources said. Nevertheless, the overture hasn’t gained traction in Minnesota.

Thinking results-oriented leaves me dizzy. 2011 Roy Hibbert really wasn’t the same defensive monster he is today.

Larry Bird squashed any rumors of a trade centered around Hibbert anyway, according to Jeff Rabjohns.

That same day, though, Taylor Zarzour of the CBS Charlotte wrote about how the Bobcats should trade everyone for Derrick Williams.

June 23, 2011

Adrian Wojnarowski reports the Hawks’ interest in the No. 2 pick, dangling Josh Smith as bait.

In a lust to draft center Enes Kanter, the Atlanta Hawks are trying to engage the Minnesota Timberwolves in discussions to trade Josh Smith(notes) for the No. 2 pick in Thursday’s NBA draft, sources told Yahoo! Sports.

So far, the Wolves haven’t been forthcoming on a potential deal, but sources say Atlanta was still trying to discuss a deal in the hours leading up to the draft.

The same key components of the trade pop up later in Bill Simmons’ 2012 NBA Trade Value column.

February 15, 2012

Chris Tomasson of Fox Sports on Minnesota pursuing Pau Gasol:

In other news involving NBA big men, a source said Wednesday that Minnesota continues to pursue a possible trade for Lakers forward Pau Gasol, dangling rookie Derrick Williams, who is from the Los Angeles area, and draft choices. The only players considered untouchable by the Timberwolves, who are seeking to add a veteran by the trade deadline, are Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio. The Timberwolves believe it could be enticing for Gasol to play on the same team as fellow Spaniard Rubio.

I can’t say I remember that trade rumor from the 2011-12 season, but it would come back ten months later.

June 28, 2012

This seemed like Kahn being Kahn more than anything else.

July 5, 2012

But Kahn would stop at nothing for Nicolas Batum.

July 6, 2012

Darren Wolfson reports about a different sign-and-trade scenario, this one involving Philadelphia:

According to the source, the way to get Batum here is still via a sign-and-trade. David Kahn, the Wolves’ president of basketball operations, will continue to talk with the Portland Trail Blazers throughout the weekend.

One scenario involves a three-way trade with Philadelphia. Andre Iguodala would go to Portland, Derrick Williams would go as part of a package to the Sixers and Batum would come to Minnesota. So far, Portland is balking.

December 6, 2012

We’re into Derrick Williams’ second season now. I’ll always remember his rookie campaign when he slammed home alley-oops from Ricky Rubio, who was also a rookie. They both sent the Target Center into a frenzy I hadn’t seen since Game 7 of the Western Semis back in 200-fricken-4. It was exciting as hell.

But everything else about Williams’ game was inconsistent including what position he would play. You could see the confusion when he was on the floor, and, as a result, his stock start to plummet. He was becoming just a trade piece to something involving bigger names.

From Ray Richardson of the Pioneer Press:

The Los Angeles Lakers recently rejected a Timberwolves trade offer for forward Pau Gasol that would revolve around Minnesota center Nikola Pekovic and forward Derrick Williams, according to an ESPN.com report citing sources with knowledge of the Lakers’ thinking.

The report claimed that the Lakers also turned down an offer from the Toronto Raptors.

It seemed like the biggest piece the Lakers would’ve taken back was Nikola Pekovic, versus Derrick Williams. That would’ve been flip-flopped ten months earlier.

February 20, 2013

Paul Millsap would’ve been a terrific rent for Minnesota, but by then it would’ve been a lopsided trade if no other players or draft picks were involved.

June 26, 2013

Chad Ford brings back memories of two years ago, when Indiana was rumored to have baited Danny Granger, then Roy Hibbert to move up to No. 2 to get Derrick Williams:

The Wolves continue to try to move up higher in the draft to land either Victor Oladipo or Ben McLemore. The latest rumbles have them reaching out to the Magic, Bobcats and Suns offering Derrick Williams and the No. 9 and No. 26 picks in return for Orlando’s No. 2 pick, Charlotte’s No. 4 pick or Phoenix’s No. 5 pick.

November 12, 2013

One tidbit from Adrian Wojnarowski’s column about the Knicks chasing Kevin Love:

Kevin Love is on deck to be recruited to New York in 2015, and that’s among the reasons the Timberwolves are so determined to make deals to climb deep into the playoffs these next two years. Young Minnesota players Derrick Williams and Alexey Shved are available in deals for veterans to help these T’wolves now, league executives told Yahoo Sports.

By now, Williams’ trade value is at an all time low, with returns ranging from Iman Shumpert to…

November 25, 2013

At last, the real trade that would end Derrick Williams’ campaign in Minnesota:

The Timberwolves now have a dream starting five of Lucs and Kevins: Kevin Martin, Luc Mbah a Moute, Kevin Garnett, Kevin Love, and Luc Longley. Or something like that.

November 26, 2013

And it’s official, from the Wolves press release:

The Minnesota Timberwolves today announced the team has acquired forward Luc Mbah a Moute (BAH-ah MOO-tay) from the Sacramento Kings in exchange for forward Derrick Williams.

“We are excited to acquire a solid veteran player in Luc Mbah a Moute,” said Flip Saunders, Timberwolves President of Basketball Operations. “Luc is known as one of the premier defensive players in the league with an ability to guard multiple positions. He adds a lot of energy, grit and a high basketball IQ to our team. We thank Derrick for his contributions to our organization and wish him well in Sacramento.”

Best of luck to Derrick Williams. Minnesota never felt like the best fit for him.

Since 2003, over 3/4 of teams under .500 on November 18 miss the playoffs (continued)

2014 NBA Season, Boredom, Stats November 19, 2013 Leave a comment

Yesterday I worked through a little boredom, looking at how often teams miss the playoffs after starting out under .500 through November 18, yesterday’s date.

The result was higher than I thought, with 76.7 percent finishing in the lottery since 2003. I decided to expand on that statistic by looking at the rest of the months of the season and how often teams can overcome not just a sluggish start but an extra underwhelming month or two or four. Here are the results while skipping the lockout-shortened 2012 season, though I moved the day from December/January/February/March 18 to 19 just to keep up with the current date thing. I don’t know. I’m weird:

Under .500 through December 19: 28 teams out of a possible 143 still made the playoffs (19.6 percent).

Under .500 through January 19: 25/117 (21.4 percent).

Under.500 through February 19: 21/125 (16.8 percent).

Under .500 through March 19: 14/140 (10 percent).

As you can see, the likelihood declines as the season enters the dog days of basketball, and even further after the trade deadline. The percentages are a little misleading though when, since 2003, the Eastern Conference has had nine teams make the playoffs with a record under .500. We’ll more than likely see a couple teams do that again this year. Finish with less than 41 wins in the West though and you’re toast.

No more than five teams under .500 in any month have gone on to make the playoffs. For March 19, it shrunk to three teams. That could change this year, though we’re still four months away from seeing if that holds up.

Four months away still! This season is going to last forever.

Since 2003, over 3/4 of teams under .500 on November 18 miss the playoffs

2014 NBA Season, Boredom, NBA Playoffs, Stats November 18, 2013 1 Comment

If your favorite team is off to a bad start, you can look that stat in the headline in two different ways:

  • Since 2003, 76.7 percent of teams that are under .500 coming into November 18 have missed the playoffs, failing to put the pieces together in another season of letdowns.
  • Since 2003, 23.3 percent have come back to make the playoffs and win their fans back with five months of great basketball. The first three weeks? Well, that was just a flesh wound.

A total of 30 teams out of 129 have come back to contend. You might think most of those came from the East since we’re in an era where the West has been loaded, but only 16 were from the inferior conference. And they’re not all teams who just barely make the postseason. Two defending champions, the Shaq-led ’03 Lakers and ’07 Heat, started out flat. Others like the ’07 Suns, ’07 Bulls, and ’11 Grizzlies were pesky outs.

Here’s the complete list. I left out the lockout-shortened 2012 season:

2003 (4 out of 13 teams): Los Angeles Lakers (3-7), Portland (4-6), Utah (4-7), Minnesota (5-6)

2004 (2/11): New Jersey (5-6), New York (3-7)

2005 (4/12): New Jersey (2-6), Chicago (0-6), Denver (3-5), Memphis (3-5)

2006 (3/14): Chicago (3-5), Los Angeles Lakers (4-5), Sacramento (4-5)

2007 (5/14): Toronto (2-7), Chicago (3-6), Miami (4-5), Washington (4-5), Phoenix (3-6)

2008 (2/14): New Jersey (3-6), Washington (4-5)

2009 (2/12): Chicago (5-6), Dallas (4-7)

2010 (2/14): Charlotte (3-8), San Antonio (4-5)

2011 (3/13): New York (4-8), Philadelphia (2-10), Memphis (4-8)

2013 (3/12): Indiana (4-7), Denver (4-6), Houston (4-6) 

2014 (???/15): 

Who will make the list this year?

So far, 15 teams are under .500: (deep breath) Philadelphia, Boston, Toronto, New York, Brooklyn, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, Orlando, Washington, New Orleans, Sacramento, Los Angeles Lakers, Utah, and Denver. No more than five and no less than two have made the playoffs. If we’re going straight by the math over the last decade, we can pick three or four.

I’ll pick four and they’re all coming from the East. Out in the West, the most likely under .500 candidates to surge back are the Lakers and Pelicans yet they’ll have to overtake Memphis, who sits in tenth place and in time will pass ninth-place Phoenix. Basically, nobody under .500 from the West will come back this year, though Kobe Bryant‘s return and Anthony Davis‘ monster sophomore season at least made me think about it. Oh well. There are still nine teams from the East to choose from.

Every team in the Atlantic Division is under .500, which is embarrassing but one has to win and get the fourth seed by default. I’d expect New York and Brooklyn to limp into the finish line, maybe seeing them battle in the first round of the playoffs. At the very least, they both get in. The East is just too terrible for them not to.

From there I’ll go with Detroit, who didn’t sign Josh Smith just to tank the season away. I already wrote a little about their frontcourt woes while wondering why nobody is fouling Andre Drummond, but I expect the team to play better as the season goes on. I mean, they can’t be much worse defensively, right? If they somehow are, Greg Monroe can be moved for a piece that’s a better fit, one that’s good enough to put Detroit in the playoffs. I’d like to think of them being a pesky out for a title contender, at least pushing the series to five games.

That leaves one more team, and it gets painful to pick and choose who will get destroyed by Miami or Indiana, but I’ll go with Washington. They can make a move or two before the deadline with whatever Trevor Ariza will attract, but could (and probably will) also fire Randy Wittman and hopefully gain wins down the line with a coach that, you know, can get the job done with John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Marcin ‘Too Hot To’ Gortat.

Toronto can make moves too, especially with Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan, but a trade will more often than one to push themselves into the lottery. As for Cleveland, they seem to be a mess led by Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, and Anderson Varejao. Somehow, they can’t score with those three guys. Cleveland was a tough choice though since they too are primed for a trade down the road.

The East in general is a crap shoot, but it wasn’t expected to be this bad out of the gates. Right now if the conference were a Myspace account, Orlando, Philadelphia, Toronto, and Charlotte would be in the East’s top eight, along with Miami and the like. By the end of the season, they’ll all have grown sour and made room for New York, Brooklyn, Detroit, and Washington.