Category Archives: 2014 NBA Season

How Kendrick Perkins’ offense can be salvaged

2014 NBA Season, Oklahoma City Thunder February 13, 2014 1 Comment

It’s long been an adventure watching Kendrick Perkins with a basketball in his hands. There have been passes to both empty spaces and opposing players, post ups that went nowhere and mid-range jumpers that barely grazed the rim.

Despite those moments, Scott Brooks still likes to involve his starting center in the offense because of all the other good things he does. After all, it’s damaging to have a player on the court who never shoots the ball, and Perkins is already in the bottom-10 in the NBA in field goals attempted per-36-minutes (Steven Adams also, to be fair). Arguably the easiest and most valuable solution would be to not start him. A second, similar solution would be to play him the least possible minutes he’s content with. Both seem to have little to no chance of happening outside of a Finals matchup with Miami, so another alternative is to make halfway-decent lemonade with $9 million worth of lemons.

Just where Perkins is best with the ball, though, is tough to answer. He’s usually not quick enough to contribute to fast breaks and has trouble finishing around the rim in general, second-worst among big men with 50 or more attempts within the restricted area. The extra half-second he takes to bend his knees before elevating impacts him the most around that part of the floor, allowing quick-recovering defenders to turn open layups into heavily contested ones. That’s a problem nobody else in the Thunder’s otherwise freakishly athletic rotation seems to have.

Another option is post ups, one of the most frequent looks for Perkins even though they’re a shaky choice at best. He’ll often take a second too long to measure up his defender, overthinking the process of scoring. Perk can physically impose his will to a decent spot, one that allows him to use a jump hook that sometimes doesn’t look half-bad but other times appears clunky, but when matched with a player that gives up little ground he’ll attempt a turnaround fadeaway that doesn’t exactly mimic LaMarcus Aldridge‘s. Movement from every other Thunder player often comes to a screeching halt.

Then there’s Perkins’ jump shot, one that gets little to no respect for good reason but I can’t blame him for hoisting one anyway. It’s often an attempt to penalize his defenders for choosing to disrupt off-ball movement, but some jumpers come in the flow of the game like as the beneficiary of a drive-and-kick. Percentage-wise, Perkins’ shot hasn’t been bad over the last two seasons, shooting 39.8 percent. The sample size is small, though, as he’s only averaged less than one mid-range jumper per game, and I’m not sure there’s ever been a ~40 percent shooter from that area who has air balled or barely grazed rim on so many shots as he has:

So what scoring options are left if Perkins has a tough time near the rim, in the post, and from 15 feet?

Believe it or not, he’s shown off a floater. It doesn’t exactly mimic Shawn Marion’s, but the floater from the 280-pound center has been an effective way (he’s 10-for-15, according to video from NBA.com) to capitalize on attention Durant draws from multiple defenders. Surely he’d benefit off Russell Westbrook too if he were healthy.

Below are a few examples in slideshow format.

The floater solves a ton of Perkins’ problems. He takes those shots just outside the restricted area where he struggles mightily, and the extra time he needs to bend his knees and elevate doesn’t pose as much of a problem when he’s catching passes mid-stride. Perk will stop and ready to shoot just outside of a help defender’s reach, though it’s fine if he causes them to contest his shot. Serge Ibaka, the Thunder player whose defender is most likely to rotate, often waits for the offensive rebound.

The floater also keeps Perkins free from thinking. It’s similar to what Seth Partnow at Where Offense Happens wrote about Harrison Barnes a few weeks ago, for example. Keep it simple, and Perk does when he goes with the floater. It means he doesn’t pump fake or back his defender down with a series of dribbles, but takes that silky, silky, silky smooth shot before the defense adjusts towards the paint. Like mentioned before, the quick floater by Perkins also gives Ibaka a greater chance at an offensive rebound since there’s one less opponent in the paint.

There’s also the realization from the opposition that Perkins is scoring on them. Back in the lockout-shortened 2012 season there was the game between the Timberwolves and Clippers where Kevin Love sank a game-winning three, but before that shot was a series of events that included Darko Milicic banking a floater off the dribble. Hubie Brown called it “demoralizing” for the Clippers. I’d like to it’s the same for anybody beat by the Thunder not because of Durant or Ibaka, but Kendrick Perkins.

The sample size is small for that shot, but going 10-for-15 is a nice start. Factored in with the rest of Perkins’ shots from five to nine feet out, he’s one of the best shooters in the league from that area. It won’t turn the world upside down if Oklahoma City gets him more of those looks than post ups (unless you’re netw3rk), but even if the floaters balance out to roughly 50 percent they’re still a two dropping at a similar rate as open mid-range jumpers from Ibaka. It’s also a nice alternative in the playoffs when pace slows down and every scoring option counts.

Going forward, whether that unusual shot from Perkins is enough to deflect attention from his flaws is hard to tell. If Scott Brooks continues to designs scoring options of Perkins, hopefully he helps the center become less of a comedic adventure with the basketball in his hands and more of a finisher.

Non-conference update: The West wins the most active week yet

2014 NBA Season, East vs West February 10, 2014 1 Comment

Two months ago, Basketball-Reference provided history of non-conference games in a really cool table, one that showed the West winning this year’s matchups at a frequency not seen in nearly 55 years, back when the league had “divisions”. A few weeks passed before I started a weekly update tracking the rest of the non-conference games.

The 15th week of the season featured the most active stretch of the East’s teams playing the West’s, 33 played total with each conference winning 10 at home. The West won eight on the road, though, while the East took just five. Below is the updated week-by-week breakdown:

The 45.5 percent win rate the East had last week would be solid over an entire season. That’s if they ever cared about non-conference statistics. It’s fine if they don’t, especially when the games have nowhere as much impact as they do for the West.

Indiana and Miami are still the only East teams to have 10 wins in non-conference play, but in Week 15 the conference as a whole blew some winnable games. The Cavs heard the thud that is rock-bottom after falling to the Lakers while the Heat sparked a search for a replacement to the term “coasting” after losing to Utah. Some suggestions: sailing, floating, drifting, and freewheeling. Heatwheeling?

As for the West, below is an updated breakdown of how many games each team has left against the East. It impacts both the playoff race and the lottery with the former benefiting from more non-conference games while the latter hopes for less. The more games the Jazz and Lakers play against West teams jousting for playoff seeding, the higher likelihood they’ll accumulate more lottery balls.

With DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay and Isiah Thomas, it’s hard to believe Sacramento finishes as the worst team in the West. Recent injuries to the first two players hasn’t helped, but the Lakers are all sorts of banged up too. Utah’s wedged in between them with some nice pieces themselves.

As for the playoff teams and contenders, most are in that 9 to 12-game range against the East with Memphis and Golden State having some extras, which is huge when they’re both just trying to make the postseason versus deciding who they’d like to host in the first round. Meanwhile, the Clippers are running out of near-gimmes against the East but it’s right when Chris Paul is returning and Blake Griffin is making a case as the best power forward in the league. As usual, looking at non-conference games is helpful but remaining back-to-backs and home/away games are just as important too.

There’s also this thing called the trade deadline that’s creeping into front offices. Will a team out West grab Arron Afflalo? What about Greg Monroe, Josh Smith, or whatever else Detroit could look to trade? Cleveland’s another East team that could swap some players such as Dion Waiters or Anderson Varejao.

For the heck of it, though, below is Week 16’s non-conference schedule. There’s only three days of games but about as many will be played as any other random week:

The East has 10 home games compared to the West’s six. That’s also the amount of wins I think each conference could pull off, respectively, though a couple East teams always fail to win down the stretch.

Maybe this is the week they turn in a dominant performance, though slowly working towards a respectable winning percentage against the West is just as fine. It’s like I’ve felt that way all season about most of the East’s teams.

For the other non-conference posts, check this out.

Half-court heaves: A follow up on pre-season curiosity

2014 NBA Season, Follow ups, Stats February 7, 2014 Comments: 3

It’s that time of the season where I’ll be following up on posts I made three to four months ago, most likely relating to predictions or curiosity about a player or team. For example, a few days ago I looked at Josh Smith’s shot selection that I was fine with in November but now fascinated by how badly it could regress. Today I’ll go even further with low-percentage shots, following up with pre-season curiosity about how players would approach buzzer-beating half-court shots in a time when efficiency is as important as ever.

With the way the heaves are counted in the stats, they create a unique conflict between a team and the player holding the ball during the final seconds of a quarter. Taking those shots with the clock winding down would obviously be efficient from a team’s standpoint. The opposition is never getting the ball back so it’s a chance for a free three points, points a team is rewarded with about 2.3 percent of the time (more on that soon). That percentage, however, has made some players hesitant to take those shots because of the harm to their individual shooting numbers.

Fast forward to now and this season’s heave total is actually on pace to match 2013’s, give or take a few attempts. Below is a season-by-season tally according to Basketball-Reference that dates back to when they first charted shots. Only attempts taken from 47 feet and beyond were accounted for, though I thought about 45 before staying literal with heaves beyond half court.

Since the league only needs five more made heaves to break the record set in 2010, I just might have to update (or not) whenever one goes in. Below are the eight players who have made shots so far.

Though my calculations might be off, to reach an effective field goal percentage of .500 we’d need one of the following two to happen:

  1. 1,562 of those 4,686 total heaves would have to go in. This is where Stephen Curry becomes useful.
  2. The actual 110 that went in would have to be worth about 42.5 points each. 2014’s “heater” took a sliver off their possible value. Coming into the season, they would’ve been worth closer to 43. Whatever. This is where Curry would become VERY useful. Jamal Crawford, too.

In the first post about the heaves, I wrote that the impact of those shots to a player’s shooting stats isn’t as big of a deal as they might think and both past and current all-stars like Jason Kidd, Ray Allen, LeBron James, and Kobe Bryant all have taken over 30 career heaves from beyond half court (all the cool kids are doing it!). Unfortunately, that alone likely wouldn’t encourage more shots. A better chance would be implementing a rule that treats heaves like how baseball treats sacrifice bunts and flies. If the shots go in they’ll count and if they miss it’s absent from the stat sheet.

Regardless, now that the season’s over halfway done we can look at how heaves have affected three-point percentages so far. Below is a table featuring every player who has taken three or more shots from half court and beyond.

Most players’ three-point percentages change by less than one point and each team still has 30 or more games to go, so there’s plenty of time for the impact of heaves to look even smaller.

Lance Stephenson arguably has the most at stake, though, as he hangs around league-average three-point shooting while on an expiring contract. Reggie Jackson (who leads the league in heaves this season with seven) and Alec Burks are other players to watch, but a few missed buzzer-beaters shouldn’t matter for others. Guys like Andre Miller (the most notorious heaver with over 100 career attempts) and Tyreke Evans, for example, aren’t known for their range. Their percentage from 50 feet out is roughly the same from 25, well almost. Looking at the table, Tony Wroten‘s actually a close call.

Those who are the most negatively affected by heaves are probably sports bettors who have the under on a point total and fantasy basketball owners of players who take last-second shots. A fantasy team with Evans, Miller, and Burks might have to punt three-pointers and maybe even points, though the latter wouldn’t be the case if half-court heaves were worth over 40 points.

Josh Smith’s shooting has reached it’s low point, or has it?

2014 NBA Season, Detroit Pistons, Follow ups February 4, 2014 Comments: 4
Keith Allison | Flickr

Keith Allison | Flickr

Three months ago I dedicated a post to Josh Smith’s shot selection, back when it wasn’t so rough on the eyes. The newly-signed Pistons forward hoisted 23 threes through the first three games of the season but the mid-range attempts were mostly absent. A long shot to be an above-average shooter, having Smith take a step behind the line instead of taking 20-foot two-pointers was a step in the right direction, one that would yield more points per attempt from jump shots he’d have to take when playing alongside Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond. It was a hopeful sign of efficiency.

Fast forward to now. Smith’s recording career-lows in PER, true shooting percentage, effective field goal percentage, and free throw rate. His threes and shots in the dead zone combine for about half his field goal attempts, most of them being bricks that create shot chart blood. However, the floor on Smith’s three-point percentage is most remarkable, possibly still untapped despite being on pace to be the worst three-point shooter of all time by a whole two percentage points, minimum 200 attempts. His 166 tries have dropped 23.5 percent of the time but the monthly splits worsen each month:

smithgraph1

Smith’s just 16-for-87 beyond the arc (18.4 percent) over his last 30 games. SportVU lists him as the worst three-point shooter in catch-and-shoot situations (24.7 percent) among the top 100 players in attempts, with teammate Charlie Villanueva second to last. His percentages are even worse in pull up attempts, though those shots have rarely occurred and it’s common for players to struggle shooting off the dribble versus a pass.

The good news is that Smith’s three-point rate is dropping. Here’s a table of those monthly splits with his mid-range rate and free throw rate included, via NBA.com. (I left out October and February because small sample size.)

smithgraph2

The three-point rates in December and January match up with Smith’s last season in Atlanta. Maybe they have to do with Detroit’s big three of Smith, Drummond, and Monroe playing together less frequently each month. According to NBA.com, the trio was together 18.7 minutes in November, 16.2 in December, and 15.0 in January. Neither monthly split yielded positive results, though that’s not 100 percent on Smith. The trio needs to be severely staggered, and Brandon Jennings at point guard hasn’t helped any.

The other evil in Smith’s game is the mid-range shot. The heater from that area of the floor last month, one that gave him a nice uptick in true shooting percentage was obvious, possibly even fatal fool’s gold after last night’s performance in Miami. Smith’s never shot better than 39 percent from mid-range in a single season, and there’s a chance if the three-point line was shortened like it was from 1995 to 1997 that he’d likely experience little to no improvement like players listed here.

As disappointing as Smith’s shooting has been, he’s not the sole reason for Detroit sitting in ninth place behind Charlotte and Washington. His shooting is costly but he would have more to offer if he wasn’t playing small forward over half the time, a position that helps neglect the skills he provides on both offense and defense. The Pistons, however, are going nowhere unless a third of its frontline is shipped out. Trading Smith would be impressive when he’s on the books until 2017 at $13.5 million a pop, but Monroe seems like the most moveable piece given his looming, steep raise next summer, one possibly not worth it given the holes in his defense.

Then again, the same could’ve been said about Smith’s contract and whether or not it’s worth paying him to play on the perimeter. Joe Dumars must’ve thought it was but the results, at least on offense, have been a three-month migraine. There’s plenty of room for improvement in Smith’s shooting with some of it bound to happen given how bad things have become, but the slight possibility that the worst-case scenario remains to be seen is amazing in itself.

Non-conference update: The West wins another week, plus a look at their non-conference games left

2014 NBA Season, East vs West February 3, 2014 1 Comment

It was another winning week for the West, going 15-8 against the lowly Eastern Conference where only Indiana and Miami have more than 10 wins in non-conference play. The West has won 12 of the season’s 14 weeks so far with 12 to go.

Here’s the updated week-by-week breakdown:

Last week, Milwaukee continued to struggle in non-conference play as they went 0-3 and are now 1-16 for the season. It also didn’t help for the East that Indiana and Miami, the only two teams to have a non-conference record over .500, both lost games against the West on their home courts. It’s a good thing the Pacers won’t match up with Goran Dragic and the Suns in the playoffs. Miami and Oklahoma City, on the other hand…

The Milwaukee of the West is looking to be the Lakers, who are getting beat up by the East lately when just about every other Western team uses non-conference games as a standings-padder. Only Sacramento comes close to having as bad of a non-conference record, who are 5-9 while the Lakers are 7-13. It’s unlikely Sacramento stays that bad when they can play six more games against the East.

Speaking of games left against the East, in my opinion it’s a decent argument to use when looking at which West teams will make the playoffs. Here’s a breakdown of that too:

I thought about including a table for the East, but Miami and Indiana are on a crash course to meet in the Conference Finals. The first round matchups for them should be snoozers.

Of course, non-conference games don’t say everything about the rest of the NBA schedule. Back-to-backs, home vs road games, and the strength of the remaining games are all key too. As you can see though, even without Mike Conley the Grizzlies should tread water just fine when they play five more non-conference games than Dallas. Meanwhile, the Chris Paul-less Clippers might regress after capitalizing on an East-heavy schedule the last few weeks.

Of course, teams with extra non-conference games still have to play and win them versus just giving them the W, but so far the West has had a historical upper hand this season.