Category Archives: East vs West

Non-conference update: The East continues to chip away in the standings

2014 NBA Season, East vs West March 3, 2014 Leave a comment

The non-conference update follows games pitting the Western Conference’s teams versus the East’s. This season, the West has often held a winning percentage so large it hasn’t been seen in over 50 years.

Last week the East continued a respectable winning percentage against the West, finishing 9-10. Among the teams bullied, though, was the New York Knicks thanks to Dirk Nowitzki and Stephen Curry. Detroit also didn’t win either of their games against the West. Over the past month, though, the East is 40-46 against the West. Not great, of course, but definitely fine.

Below is an updated week-by-week breakdown of non-conference play so far:

I mentioned in my last non-conference post that the West’s best season ever against the East was in 2004 when they finished with a winning percentage of 63.3. Last week put a dent in the possibility of 2014 surpassing that mark, though it’s still possible. The West would have to finish 71-35, which can be slimmed to 64-35 when taking into account Philadelphia playing seven non-conference games that should hardly be competitive. POOR THADDEUS YOUNG.

A pretty good chunk of non-conference games will take place this week, 28 total with each conference having 14 home games apiece. Indiana and Miami, far and away the best teams against the West, play five games while West playoff teams and their hopefuls play in 20 of them. A closer look at those games can be found here as well as bolded games I think the West will win, though I put little thought into it. Basically, the West was predicted to go 19-9 which is right on track to surpass 2004’s winning percentage.

The rest of March as a whole has a ton of non-conference games, 98 to be exact with 50 of the games hosted by West teams. After that, it slows down significantly with nine games over the 16 other days.

Below is a look at the league standings with non-conference games left. Conferences are separated by different sheets, so to view the West simply go to the bottom and click on sheet labeled after it.

Dallas having seven less non-conference games than Memphis and Minnesota looks pretty huge, though the Grizzlies still have to play Miami not once, not twice, not three times, not four, not five okay they play the Heat twice, but still. They’re actually a pretty interesting matchup with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph playing against the smaller lineups of Chris Bosh and either LeBron James or Shane Battier.

Minnesota also faces an important stretch of non-conference games right when they need it most, all while Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin return to the lineup. They’ll host New York, Detroit and Toronto this week and Milwaukee in the following one. That’s a good reminder that while the East is holding its own as of late, a stretch against their teams is still seen as a way to beef up in the standings.

Until next week.

Non-conference update: The East ties and a breakdown of games left

2014 NBA Season, East vs West February 25, 2014 1 Comment

The non-conference update follows games pitting the Western Conference’s teams versus the East’s. This season, the West has often held a winning percentage so large it hasn’t been seen in over 50 years.

A day late because of my Monday post about the New York Knicks, the East and West tied last week in non-conference play. It’s the first time the East tied or won a week since the seven days before Christmas and only third time in the 17 weeks this season.

Below is the updated week-by-week breakdown:

The last three weeks have been respectable outcomes for the East with a combined winning percentage of 46.3 percent. That fits right in with the past 14 years against the West. As for the entire season, the West’s winning percentage has now fallen below 63.3 percent which was their highest mark ever, recorded in the 2003-04 season.

This week the West is currently 3-0, including Dirk Nowitzki’s unbelievable-yet-totally-believable buzzer-beater over Carmelo Anthony last night, but there’s still 16 games to go.

Below is a table of all the non-conference games remaining as well as a separate column for games featuring the Sixers (poor Thaddeus Young), Bucks (poor Caron Butler), Magic (poor Arron Afflalo), Celtics (poor Rajon Rondo?), Kings (poor DeMarcus Cousins???), Lakers (poor Kobe Bryant?????), and Jazz (poor Gordon Hayward???????):

Without taking into account back-to-backs and home and road games, Golden State has a small yet nice edge over a few West teams on the fringe by playing three games against East teams that, from here on out, might not win more than 15 games combined.

New York is worth mentioning too, even if there’s the possibility Raymond Felton misses significant time for, well, Sports Illustrated has a breakdown of what happened and what could happen next. They might even be better without him even if they just bought out Beno Udrih. Washington is also another team with a few winnable non-conference games, though they’re without Nene Hilario for at least a month after spraining his MCL.

Overall, there’s still over a month left in the NBA season and over 120 non-conference games left. The East could continue chipping away at what was once an embarrassing winning percentage, or the West could surpass their 2004 mark as their best non-conference record ever.

Looking at team-by-team conference splits

2014 NBA Season, East vs West, Stats February 17, 2014 Comments: 2

Over the last several weeks, I’ve started a series about non-conference matchups in a season where the West has had the upper hand by a historic margin. That margin, at least in terms of winning percentage against the East, is slowly shrinking but I thought it’d be fun to dive deeper into non-conference play anyway.

So after fooling around with the stats page at NBA.com, I made some conference splits. Just how well are teams performing against the East compared to the West?

Some net ratings per 100 possessions are pretty staggering. Only the Heat have a higher one against the West while the Jazz are even at zero. Below are the five worst differences against the West and the six best since there was a tie for fifth (you can also view it here):

It’s not all that surprising to see a team like the Kevin Love-led Timberwolves in the bottom five. Their offense is still somewhat there against the West, though their defense falls apart. At the same time, so does quite a few others and Minnesota’s net rating versus the West is slightly above the league average of -1.57. Positivity!

That’s only a small portion of the table I made, though, since I plucked basic, miscellaneous, and advanced stats from NBA.com. It actually killed an hour of boredom by making the massive table below. After posting that, I’ll include a few thoughts.

Scroll around to see the stats you’re curious about. Teams are sorted in alphabetical with net ratings, assist percentages, etc. first, miscellaneous stats like fast break points and points in the paint second, and basic stats third.

The table can also be viewed here, and I’d actually suggest that since the table is huge. It’s my first time using Google Docs links so any issues are encouraged to be brought up.

As a reminder, all stats are pace-adjusted and according to NBA.com.

Defensive efficiency

Defensive efficiency shows a pretty significant difference with teams on average allowing 4.49 points more per 100 possessions against West opponents. In particular, Detroit, Dallas, and Toronto all allow 10 or more. Only the Lakers (+1) and Spurs (+.01) have better defensive ratings against the West than the East, though the Lakers’ one is no accomplishment. More on that in the next paragraph.

The top five defensive ratings against the East are Indiana (91.1), Chicago (94.7), Toronto (96.5), Golden State (97.3), and Houston (97.6). The five worst are Los Angeles (106.3), Philadelphia (105.6), Milwaukee (105.6), Utah (104.7), and New York (104.5). Nothing too surprising, though New York’s defensive rating against the East WITH Tyson Chandler returning is 106.1, according to NBA.com.

The top five defenses against the West are Indiana (97.2), Oklahoma City (99.5), San Antonio (100.3), Golden State (100.6), and Charlotte (102.0). The five worst are Detroit (112.3), Dallas (109.4), Utah and Cleveland (108.6 each), and Sacramento (108.4). Indiana is a freak of nature. Detroit, meanwhile, is a punching bag.

Offensive Efficiency

Offensive efficiency doesn’t show anywhere as large of a difference as the defensive side. 14 teams score more points per 100 possessions against the West and only one team, San Antonio, has a difference larger than five points in either direction. They score 110.9 per 100 possessions against the East and 105 against West opponents.

The top five against the East are San Antonio (110.9), Oklahoma City (110.1), Portland (109.3), the Los Angeles Clippers (108.4), and Miami (108). The bottom five are Milwaukee (97.1), Utah (97.3), Cleveland (97.4), Philadelphia (97.6), and Memphis (98.9). Seems pretty standard as far as the top five go. On the other side, Cleveland is just embarrassing. For the Grizz, there’s plenty of time to improve on their number, though they need health to be on their side sooner or later.

The top five offenses against the West are Miami (112.1), Dallas (109.6), Los Angeles Clippers (109.2), Portland (108.4), and Houston (107.7) The bottom five are Philadelphia (94.4), Milwaukee (95.4), Chicago (95.6), Boston (97.6), and Orlando (97.8). No surprises all around except for maybe Dallas. Dirk Nowitzki needs more love. So much more love.

Pace

To go with the grind that is the East and the quick pace of the West, only five teams play faster against East opponents than West ones. Those five: Detroit, Golden State, Memphis, Orlando, and Sacramento.
Fast break points don’t show too much change, though. 17 teams score more fast break points against Western teams. The 30 teams on average score .38 more fast break points against them.

Threes

22 teams take less threes against the West. Those 22 teams take 1.72 less threes on average. 21 shoot a worse three point percentage, and those 21 average out at 2.97 percent worse. When factoring in every team, the average is 1.49 percent worse against the West compared to the East.

Paint

On average, teams average 2.54 more points in the paint against the West compared to the East, and only five teams average less. Those five: New Orleans, Boston, Houston, Philadelphia, and Orlando. The five highest increases: Dallas (+6.2), Indiana (+6.0), Miami (+5.5), Memphis (+5.4), and Detroit (+4.9).

Also, 21 teams foul less against the West while 18 average less blocked shots.

Free throws

19 teams take more free throws against the West, though overall teams take only .12 more attempts. Only nine teams foul more against West opponents.

Rebounding

21 teams rebound less per 100 possessions against the West and 22 rebound a lesser percentage. At the same time, 20 teams grab more offensive rebounds though 17 grab a higher percentage. 12 teams record more second chance points against the West opponents than East ones.

Passing

Six teams assist a higher percentage against the West: New York, Atlanta, Sacramento, Boston, Cleveland, and Utah. Overall, teams assist 2.28 percent less. Oklahoma City is in last place at a decrease of 8.3 percent.

14 teams have a lesser assist/turnover ratio, though, and only four teams turn it over more against the West: the Lakers, Minnesota, New York, and Chicago.

There’s a bunch of other stuff to look at. I just thought I’d share the table and some thoughts. Brighter people will draw better conclusions from it than I could. Basically, though, the West is obviously more strong, but also a different beast than the lesser conference. The difference in pace is what I find most surprising, at least so far.

Any other thoughts are welcome.

Though I made a formula to find the differences in stats between each conference, I’m not guaranteeing everything to be 100 percent correct, especially since opponent stats were confusing at first. There might be a team with, for example, an average of 1.2 rebounds less against the West instead of -1.2. Things like that.

Make with it whatever you’d like, though, and again any comments or corrections are welcome.

Week 16 in non-conference play: Wednesday’s losses put East under .500 for the week

2014 NBA Season, East vs West February 14, 2014 1 Comment

On Monday I predicted the East could win as many as 10 games against the West this week, mostly thanks to 10 of the 16 games heading into the all-star break taking place at their home courts (Indiana with two of them) and Miami on the road against foes from the Pacific Division. It started off as expected with the East going 6-2 heading into Wednesday, the last day of non-conference games before a much-needed league-wide breather. Eight non-conference games were left and the East hosted six of them.

And then the 10-win prediction fell apart. The Knicks melted down in yet another game, this time against Sacramento. Raymond Felton just might’ve sleepwalked through the whole game, which would’ve fit perfectly with how Philadelphia performed this week. Meanwhile, Washington continued playing .500 ball to a T, Indiana took a step back, Memphis held on against Orlando despite a scary fall from Marc Gasol, and so much more disappointments happened in the Eastern Conference on Wednesday.

Only Miami won, thanks to one of LeBron James’ most amazing shots yet. The East ended the 16th week 7-9, though slowly but surely they’re chipping at away at what two months ago was an unprecedented level of stink against the West. Below is the updated week-by-week breakdown:

Toronto, with the help of the rising DeMar DeRozan, became the third team to win 10 games against the West, so there’s that too. They’re 28-24 overall, good for the third-fricken-place. Only one other team outside of the Raptors, Pacers, and Heat has even nine or more wins against the West, which is the Nets. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 1-19 in non-conference play. FUN.

Below is a table showing each team’s standings and how many non-conference games they have remaining for the rest of the season:

The East is fairly balanced, with only the Nets having more than 11 games left against the West. That’s going to change next week with a road trip, though it’s one of the more friendly ones possible. There’s also the possibility Kevin Garnett and Jermaine O’Neal are matched up against each other in some good ol’ late-90s early-2000s nostalgia.

Here’s the Week 17 non-conference schedule:

Brooklyn, New Orleans, and Dallas all play three non-conference games this week. Each has a decent chance at finishing 2-1. For the Mavs and Nets, that’s obviously important to their respective playoff races, and it’s amazing that Dirk Nowitzki can still carry a team to possibly 50 wins.

As for the rest of the games, I’m done predicting them after how last week turned out. The trade deadline looms anyway when guys like Pau Gasol, Omer Asik could further beef up contenders out West or allow a legitimate third seed out East to take place.

There’s also this thing called the All-Star Game this weekend (!!!). If Joe Johnson leads the East in a blowout over the West, it should count as 100 non-conference wins, though that would only put them a shade over .500 for the season.

Non-conference update: The West wins the most active week yet

2014 NBA Season, East vs West February 10, 2014 1 Comment

Two months ago, Basketball-Reference provided history of non-conference games in a really cool table, one that showed the West winning this year’s matchups at a frequency not seen in nearly 55 years, back when the league had “divisions”. A few weeks passed before I started a weekly update tracking the rest of the non-conference games.

The 15th week of the season featured the most active stretch of the East’s teams playing the West’s, 33 played total with each conference winning 10 at home. The West won eight on the road, though, while the East took just five. Below is the updated week-by-week breakdown:

The 45.5 percent win rate the East had last week would be solid over an entire season. That’s if they ever cared about non-conference statistics. It’s fine if they don’t, especially when the games have nowhere as much impact as they do for the West.

Indiana and Miami are still the only East teams to have 10 wins in non-conference play, but in Week 15 the conference as a whole blew some winnable games. The Cavs heard the thud that is rock-bottom after falling to the Lakers while the Heat sparked a search for a replacement to the term “coasting” after losing to Utah. Some suggestions: sailing, floating, drifting, and freewheeling. Heatwheeling?

As for the West, below is an updated breakdown of how many games each team has left against the East. It impacts both the playoff race and the lottery with the former benefiting from more non-conference games while the latter hopes for less. The more games the Jazz and Lakers play against West teams jousting for playoff seeding, the higher likelihood they’ll accumulate more lottery balls.

With DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay and Isiah Thomas, it’s hard to believe Sacramento finishes as the worst team in the West. Recent injuries to the first two players hasn’t helped, but the Lakers are all sorts of banged up too. Utah’s wedged in between them with some nice pieces themselves.

As for the playoff teams and contenders, most are in that 9 to 12-game range against the East with Memphis and Golden State having some extras, which is huge when they’re both just trying to make the postseason versus deciding who they’d like to host in the first round. Meanwhile, the Clippers are running out of near-gimmes against the East but it’s right when Chris Paul is returning and Blake Griffin is making a case as the best power forward in the league. As usual, looking at non-conference games is helpful but remaining back-to-backs and home/away games are just as important too.

There’s also this thing called the trade deadline that’s creeping into front offices. Will a team out West grab Arron Afflalo? What about Greg Monroe, Josh Smith, or whatever else Detroit could look to trade? Cleveland’s another East team that could swap some players such as Dion Waiters or Anderson Varejao.

For the heck of it, though, below is Week 16’s non-conference schedule. There’s only three days of games but about as many will be played as any other random week:

The East has 10 home games compared to the West’s six. That’s also the amount of wins I think each conference could pull off, respectively, though a couple East teams always fail to win down the stretch.

Maybe this is the week they turn in a dominant performance, though slowly working towards a respectable winning percentage against the West is just as fine. It’s like I’ve felt that way all season about most of the East’s teams.

For the other non-conference posts, check this out.