Tag Archives: Eastern Conference

Non-conference update: West back on track for a record winning percentage

2014 NBA Season, East vs West March 10, 2014 Leave a comment

The non-conference update follows games pitting the Western Conference’s teams versus the East’s. This season, the West has often held a winning percentage so large it hasn’t been seen in over 50 years.

Over the month of February, the East put up a respectable fight against the West in non-conference play and ended a four-week span 40-46. It put the possibility of the West surpassing their best winning percentage of 63.3 at risk, having to go 71-35 for the rest of the season to set a new high.

Last week’s non-conference results made that mark reachable yet again, however, with the West going 20-8. Below is an updated week-by-week breakdown of non-conference matchups:

(Don’t ask about the colors I’ve been using to outline winning or tied weeks for the East. Both were random choices.)

Western Conference teams won all five games against the East’s heavyweights of Miami and Indiana, including Houston defeating both teams at home. Texas got the best of both of them overall, which isn’t that surprising. It also helped that LeBron James and Paul George, among other players from the two squads, each had an inconsistent week. Some of that blame/credit should go to the defenses of the squads they faced, however.

Even the lowly Kings and Jazz nabbed a couple wins. The Timberwolves, however, lost two games and saw their playoff hopes wash away. They beat Detroit, though, who I still can’t believe is 24-39, yet three games out from the free falling eighth-seeded Hawks team, but gives me no reason to believe they’ll make the playoffs. Maybe we’ll see Carmelo Anthony in the playoffs after all.

Below is a look at the league standings with non-conference games left. Conferences are separated by different sheets, so to view the West simply go to the bottom and click on sheet labeled after it:

Detroit’s seriously 4-20 against the West, putting them in similar company as Boston, Orlando, Philadelphia (POOR THADDEUS YOUNG), and Milwaukee. The only problem is that their record may be too good to keep their top-8 protected pick (good luck surpassing anyone below them but Cleveland). That, combined with not being good enough to make the playoffs, deciding on Greg Monroe this summer, and having Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings on the books until 2016, is about as going nowhere can get. Bad times all around.

Anyway, they have a winnable non-conference game at home on Tuesday against Sacramento, making for a matchup between Andre Drummond and DeMarcus Cousins. Fun, hopefully…!

Below are the rest of the non-conference games this week, 21 games overall:

To reach their record-high in non-conference winning percentage, the West will need to continue with a winning rate similar to last week. They play 15 road games to 6 home games, however. Playoff hopefuls from that conference play 11 games with four of them at home.

For the East’s title contenders, Miami plays two home games while Indiana has no non-conference games this week. We’ll get a good look at the Heat’s rematch against Houston on Sunday as well as Houston’s Thursday night game against Chicago and Joakim Noah, who I have a feeling will live forever or something else totally tubular.

Until next week.

Non-conference update: The East ties and a breakdown of games left

2014 NBA Season, East vs West February 25, 2014 1 Comment

The non-conference update follows games pitting the Western Conference’s teams versus the East’s. This season, the West has often held a winning percentage so large it hasn’t been seen in over 50 years.

A day late because of my Monday post about the New York Knicks, the East and West tied last week in non-conference play. It’s the first time the East tied or won a week since the seven days before Christmas and only third time in the 17 weeks this season.

Below is the updated week-by-week breakdown:

The last three weeks have been respectable outcomes for the East with a combined winning percentage of 46.3 percent. That fits right in with the past 14 years against the West. As for the entire season, the West’s winning percentage has now fallen below 63.3 percent which was their highest mark ever, recorded in the 2003-04 season.

This week the West is currently 3-0, including Dirk Nowitzki’s unbelievable-yet-totally-believable buzzer-beater over Carmelo Anthony last night, but there’s still 16 games to go.

Below is a table of all the non-conference games remaining as well as a separate column for games featuring the Sixers (poor Thaddeus Young), Bucks (poor Caron Butler), Magic (poor Arron Afflalo), Celtics (poor Rajon Rondo?), Kings (poor DeMarcus Cousins???), Lakers (poor Kobe Bryant?????), and Jazz (poor Gordon Hayward???????):

Without taking into account back-to-backs and home and road games, Golden State has a small yet nice edge over a few West teams on the fringe by playing three games against East teams that, from here on out, might not win more than 15 games combined.

New York is worth mentioning too, even if there’s the possibility Raymond Felton misses significant time for, well, Sports Illustrated has a breakdown of what happened and what could happen next. They might even be better without him even if they just bought out Beno Udrih. Washington is also another team with a few winnable non-conference games, though they’re without Nene Hilario for at least a month after spraining his MCL.

Overall, there’s still over a month left in the NBA season and over 120 non-conference games left. The East could continue chipping away at what was once an embarrassing winning percentage, or the West could surpass their 2004 mark as their best non-conference record ever.

Looking at team-by-team conference splits

2014 NBA Season, East vs West, Stats February 17, 2014 Comments: 2

Over the last several weeks, I’ve started a series about non-conference matchups in a season where the West has had the upper hand by a historic margin. That margin, at least in terms of winning percentage against the East, is slowly shrinking but I thought it’d be fun to dive deeper into non-conference play anyway.

So after fooling around with the stats page at NBA.com, I made some conference splits. Just how well are teams performing against the East compared to the West?

Some net ratings per 100 possessions are pretty staggering. Only the Heat have a higher one against the West while the Jazz are even at zero. Below are the five worst differences against the West and the six best since there was a tie for fifth (you can also view it here):

It’s not all that surprising to see a team like the Kevin Love-led Timberwolves in the bottom five. Their offense is still somewhat there against the West, though their defense falls apart. At the same time, so does quite a few others and Minnesota’s net rating versus the West is slightly above the league average of -1.57. Positivity!

That’s only a small portion of the table I made, though, since I plucked basic, miscellaneous, and advanced stats from NBA.com. It actually killed an hour of boredom by making the massive table below. After posting that, I’ll include a few thoughts.

Scroll around to see the stats you’re curious about. Teams are sorted in alphabetical with net ratings, assist percentages, etc. first, miscellaneous stats like fast break points and points in the paint second, and basic stats third.

The table can also be viewed here, and I’d actually suggest that since the table is huge. It’s my first time using Google Docs links so any issues are encouraged to be brought up.

As a reminder, all stats are pace-adjusted and according to NBA.com.

Defensive efficiency

Defensive efficiency shows a pretty significant difference with teams on average allowing 4.49 points more per 100 possessions against West opponents. In particular, Detroit, Dallas, and Toronto all allow 10 or more. Only the Lakers (+1) and Spurs (+.01) have better defensive ratings against the West than the East, though the Lakers’ one is no accomplishment. More on that in the next paragraph.

The top five defensive ratings against the East are Indiana (91.1), Chicago (94.7), Toronto (96.5), Golden State (97.3), and Houston (97.6). The five worst are Los Angeles (106.3), Philadelphia (105.6), Milwaukee (105.6), Utah (104.7), and New York (104.5). Nothing too surprising, though New York’s defensive rating against the East WITH Tyson Chandler returning is 106.1, according to NBA.com.

The top five defenses against the West are Indiana (97.2), Oklahoma City (99.5), San Antonio (100.3), Golden State (100.6), and Charlotte (102.0). The five worst are Detroit (112.3), Dallas (109.4), Utah and Cleveland (108.6 each), and Sacramento (108.4). Indiana is a freak of nature. Detroit, meanwhile, is a punching bag.

Offensive Efficiency

Offensive efficiency doesn’t show anywhere as large of a difference as the defensive side. 14 teams score more points per 100 possessions against the West and only one team, San Antonio, has a difference larger than five points in either direction. They score 110.9 per 100 possessions against the East and 105 against West opponents.

The top five against the East are San Antonio (110.9), Oklahoma City (110.1), Portland (109.3), the Los Angeles Clippers (108.4), and Miami (108). The bottom five are Milwaukee (97.1), Utah (97.3), Cleveland (97.4), Philadelphia (97.6), and Memphis (98.9). Seems pretty standard as far as the top five go. On the other side, Cleveland is just embarrassing. For the Grizz, there’s plenty of time to improve on their number, though they need health to be on their side sooner or later.

The top five offenses against the West are Miami (112.1), Dallas (109.6), Los Angeles Clippers (109.2), Portland (108.4), and Houston (107.7) The bottom five are Philadelphia (94.4), Milwaukee (95.4), Chicago (95.6), Boston (97.6), and Orlando (97.8). No surprises all around except for maybe Dallas. Dirk Nowitzki needs more love. So much more love.

Pace

To go with the grind that is the East and the quick pace of the West, only five teams play faster against East opponents than West ones. Those five: Detroit, Golden State, Memphis, Orlando, and Sacramento.
Fast break points don’t show too much change, though. 17 teams score more fast break points against Western teams. The 30 teams on average score .38 more fast break points against them.

Threes

22 teams take less threes against the West. Those 22 teams take 1.72 less threes on average. 21 shoot a worse three point percentage, and those 21 average out at 2.97 percent worse. When factoring in every team, the average is 1.49 percent worse against the West compared to the East.

Paint

On average, teams average 2.54 more points in the paint against the West compared to the East, and only five teams average less. Those five: New Orleans, Boston, Houston, Philadelphia, and Orlando. The five highest increases: Dallas (+6.2), Indiana (+6.0), Miami (+5.5), Memphis (+5.4), and Detroit (+4.9).

Also, 21 teams foul less against the West while 18 average less blocked shots.

Free throws

19 teams take more free throws against the West, though overall teams take only .12 more attempts. Only nine teams foul more against West opponents.

Rebounding

21 teams rebound less per 100 possessions against the West and 22 rebound a lesser percentage. At the same time, 20 teams grab more offensive rebounds though 17 grab a higher percentage. 12 teams record more second chance points against the West opponents than East ones.

Passing

Six teams assist a higher percentage against the West: New York, Atlanta, Sacramento, Boston, Cleveland, and Utah. Overall, teams assist 2.28 percent less. Oklahoma City is in last place at a decrease of 8.3 percent.

14 teams have a lesser assist/turnover ratio, though, and only four teams turn it over more against the West: the Lakers, Minnesota, New York, and Chicago.

There’s a bunch of other stuff to look at. I just thought I’d share the table and some thoughts. Brighter people will draw better conclusions from it than I could. Basically, though, the West is obviously more strong, but also a different beast than the lesser conference. The difference in pace is what I find most surprising, at least so far.

Any other thoughts are welcome.

Though I made a formula to find the differences in stats between each conference, I’m not guaranteeing everything to be 100 percent correct, especially since opponent stats were confusing at first. There might be a team with, for example, an average of 1.2 rebounds less against the West instead of -1.2. Things like that.

Make with it whatever you’d like, though, and again any comments or corrections are welcome.

Week 16 in non-conference play: Wednesday’s losses put East under .500 for the week

2014 NBA Season, East vs West February 14, 2014 1 Comment

On Monday I predicted the East could win as many as 10 games against the West this week, mostly thanks to 10 of the 16 games heading into the all-star break taking place at their home courts (Indiana with two of them) and Miami on the road against foes from the Pacific Division. It started off as expected with the East going 6-2 heading into Wednesday, the last day of non-conference games before a much-needed league-wide breather. Eight non-conference games were left and the East hosted six of them.

And then the 10-win prediction fell apart. The Knicks melted down in yet another game, this time against Sacramento. Raymond Felton just might’ve sleepwalked through the whole game, which would’ve fit perfectly with how Philadelphia performed this week. Meanwhile, Washington continued playing .500 ball to a T, Indiana took a step back, Memphis held on against Orlando despite a scary fall from Marc Gasol, and so much more disappointments happened in the Eastern Conference on Wednesday.

Only Miami won, thanks to one of LeBron James’ most amazing shots yet. The East ended the 16th week 7-9, though slowly but surely they’re chipping at away at what two months ago was an unprecedented level of stink against the West. Below is the updated week-by-week breakdown:

Toronto, with the help of the rising DeMar DeRozan, became the third team to win 10 games against the West, so there’s that too. They’re 28-24 overall, good for the third-fricken-place. Only one other team outside of the Raptors, Pacers, and Heat has even nine or more wins against the West, which is the Nets. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 1-19 in non-conference play. FUN.

Below is a table showing each team’s standings and how many non-conference games they have remaining for the rest of the season:

The East is fairly balanced, with only the Nets having more than 11 games left against the West. That’s going to change next week with a road trip, though it’s one of the more friendly ones possible. There’s also the possibility Kevin Garnett and Jermaine O’Neal are matched up against each other in some good ol’ late-90s early-2000s nostalgia.

Here’s the Week 17 non-conference schedule:

Brooklyn, New Orleans, and Dallas all play three non-conference games this week. Each has a decent chance at finishing 2-1. For the Mavs and Nets, that’s obviously important to their respective playoff races, and it’s amazing that Dirk Nowitzki can still carry a team to possibly 50 wins.

As for the rest of the games, I’m done predicting them after how last week turned out. The trade deadline looms anyway when guys like Pau Gasol, Omer Asik could further beef up contenders out West or allow a legitimate third seed out East to take place.

There’s also this thing called the All-Star Game this weekend (!!!). If Joe Johnson leads the East in a blowout over the West, it should count as 100 non-conference wins, though that would only put them a shade over .500 for the season.

Non-conference play and its importance to the West

East vs West January 15, 2014 Comments: 2

It was nearly a month ago when Mark Jackson was on the hot seat. Golden State had fallen to 14-13, losing to a short-handed San Antonio Spurs on national television. Championship expectations by fans were replaced with hope to just make the playoffs. The Warriors were in ninth place in the West, grouped with the mediocrity of the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers, among other teams.

Then Golden State beat both of those teams, rattled off home wins against the Clips and Suns, and went on a seven-game road trip out East where they finished 6-1. Their best stretch of the season was topped off with a win at home against Boston. 14-13 became 25-14. Title-contention was back to being realistic, though still a long shot in the loaded West.

The road trip out East helped the Warriors arguably the most in their quest to outdo last season’s exit in the Western Conference Semifinals. (Those hopes may have gotten a little higher today, thanks to a three-way trade to acquire Jordan Crawford and MarShon Brooks.)

All but one Western Conference playoff contender has used road trips out East – and games against the lowly conference in general – to beef up their win total. That one, singled-out contender is Phoenix who’s .500 in non-conference play.

Beating up on the East has been key for Western Conference playoff contenders since 2000, when the West took the upper hand in non-conference play, but it’s at its highest importance this season. That all might be obvious, but it’s nonetheless important to note that over the last 14 seasons just five Western Conference squads made the playoffs while finishing under .500 against the East:

Team vs East Record Seed  Finish
2000 Seattle SuperSonics 14-16 45-37 7 Lost First Round
2004 Denver Nuggets 14-16 43-39 8 Lost First Round
2006 Sacramento Kings 14-16 44-38 8 Lost First Round
2007 Golden State Warriors 14-16 42-40 8 Lost Semifinals
2007 Los Angeles Lakers 14-16 42-40 7 Lost First Round

The East just doesn’t have the same urge to win their battles against Western foes, able to stay in contention if they stumble during a road trip on Pacific coast, for example. Over the same seasons, they’ve had 50 teams in the playoffs with non-conference records below .500. Only one team, the 2012 Boston Celtics, has done that and made it all the way to the Conference Finals, but they needed some injury luck to get there. There’s always a chance they upset a top-seeded Bulls squad with a healthy Derrick Rose, but it’s an unlikely one.

Again, it might seem obvious about teams out West need to beat those out West to do well over 82 games. Related to the first table, below are the playoff teams with the second-worst non-conference records in those same seasons:

Team vs East Record Seed Finish
2000 Minnesota Timberwolves 18-12 50-32 6 Lost First Round
2004 Dallas Mavericks 19-11 52-30 5 Lost First Round
2006 Memphis Grizzlies 18-12 49-33 5 Lost First Round
2006 Los Angeles Lakers 18-12 45-37 7 Lost First Round
2007 Denver Nuggets 18-12 45-47 6 Lost First Round

The teams in the first table gave up, at the very least, four games to fellow playoff contenders. That worked out fine for the 2007 Golden State Warriors, but every other team missed out on the possibility of improving their seeding by one to three spots.

Of course, another (and more frequent) way of moving up in the standings is by winning games against contenders in the same conference, but some teams have gotten by with cherry picking — winning a good chunk of their games against the East. Here are some of the most egregious instances. For one squad, it wasn’t enough to make the postseason:

Team vs East vs West Record Seed Finish
2001 Houston Rockets 25-5 20-32 45-37 9 Missed Playoffs
2004 Houston Rockets 24-6 21-31 45-37 7 Lost First Round
2012 Denver Nuggets 16-2 22-26 38-28 6 Lost First Round
2013 Houston Rockets 21-9 24-28 45-37 8 Lost First Round

This season’s Minnesota Timberwolves, currently 11-5 versus the East but 7-14 against the West, might join the few and not-so-proud of that grouping.

Every 82-game season requires 30 non-conference games, though, and every one of those count given how stacked the West is this season. It’s also not any team’s fault for winning games they’re supposed to. Minnesota (and Denver and Memphis, for that matter) are hanging around with the help of that one edge available for about one-third of the season, but it would certainly help if they beat a few teams currently in the playoff seeds they’re trying to overtake.

For more posts about the East-West battles, check this out.