Tag Archives: NBA

Solid final quarter of season a common trait among champions

2014 NBA Playoffs, 2014 NBA Season, Stats March 11, 2014 Leave a comment

Every team has a peak and valley during their season, even the 76ers who started the season 3-0 but are now dealing with a winless five-week stretch. For a team looking to grab a top-3 pick in this year’s draft, that’s probably the right time to find their high and really, really low points of the season. As for the title contenders it should be the opposite, though a few teams are going through some recent woes whether it’s from a difficult stretch of games (Miami dealing with Joakim Noah and Boris Diaw), adjusting after a trade (Indiana with Evan Turner and other problems) or whatever else factoring into a slump (it’s all Russell Westbrook’s fault!).

History has shown that it’s fine to experience those downswings as long as they don’t carry too deep into March or April. Over the past 30 years, 26 of the eventual champions played .600 ball or better in the final quarter of the season. Also worth noting is that, with the help of Basketball-Reference, 26 of the last 28 champions finished the same stretch of games with a positive net rating.

Below are the last 30 champions with their records, offensive and defensive efficiency, and net rating over the final fourth of the season. Highlighted are the outliers. All stats are according to Basketball-Reference:

The outliers:

1995 Houston Rockets

Hakeem Olajuwon missed eight of the final 20 games with the Rockets going 3-5 over that stretch. Clyde Drexler played out of his mind during Dream’s absence, averaging a stat line of 30.0/9.3/5.5/2.4/0.9. He also made over 30 percent of his threes, something not totally guaranteed throughout his career.

In the 12 games Olajuwon played, Houston squeaked out a positive net rating of 0.1. Also, Zan Tabak played in only eight of the last 20 games. Absolutely has to be noted.

Orlando finished 9-11 as well, though they had efficiency splits of 114.2/112.3/+1.9. Long live the mid-90s Magic jerseys and Penny Hardaway.

2006 Miami Heat

Dwyane Wade missed three games while Shaquille O’Neal missed five. Each sat out the last two games, paving the way for a Michael Doleac-Wayne Simien-Antoine Walker-Dorell Wright-Jason Williams starting lineup. Miami lost both. Fun times.

Dallas also finished 11-9 that season and Dirk Nowitzki played 81 games, so what might be their best excuse? Their schedule wasn’t the greatest as they played the Cavaliers, Clippers, and Kings each twice and the Jazz, Nets, Nuggets, Pistons, Spurs, Suns, and Wizards each once. That’s not exactly the most murderous row of opponents but a mix of title contenders and playoff-worthy teams jousting for seeding nonetheless. Also mixed in the final 20 games were the Hornets with a rookie Chris Paul, the Magic with a young Dwight Howard, and the Warriors who…they stunk down the stretch, sure, but we all know what happened next year. Regardless, that’s 19 of the final 20 games. Joe Johnson and the Atlanta Hawks were the other squad Dallas faced (and defeated).

2010 Los Angeles Lakers

Andrew Bynum missed the last 13 games of the season while Kobe Bryant missed four. Pau Gasol was awesome down the stretch, though, averaging a line of 24.2/12.9/3.8 with 2.2 blocks.

2012 Miami Heat

A lockout-shortened season where resting core players was rarely a bad move. LeBron James, Wade, and Chris Bosh made only 31 appearances out of a possible 48, making way for front courts of some combination of Eddy Curry, Dexter Pittman, Udonis Haslem, James Jones, and Shane Battier. Arguably more fun times than 2006.

It might seem standard for solid teams to play any fourth of the season with a positive net rating, but that’s not exactly true. Using the net ratings from NBA.com, below are 10 notable teams of the last 15 seasons that dipped into the negatives over the final quarter:

Sure, a lot of those teams were pseudo-contenders. The 2001 Sixers, for example, were never going to win four games against a Lakers squad that mowed over their first three opponents with an offense-defense efficiency line of 113.0/96.3/+16.7, but maybe sputtering down the stretch contributed to those teams not being among the league’s elite during their respective seasons. As for the 2010 Lakers and 2013 Spurs, they clearly stand above the eight other teams in terms of talent and confidence they’d make a deep run in the postseason.

Some team over the next five weeks is bound to hit a rough patch. Maybe they’ll right themselves in time for what should be a hell of a postseason, but they could also end up as a team to write off whether it’s in April, May, or possibly even June. Below is a breakdown of the remaining schedules for a mix of title contenders and ones I don’t think will go that far in the playoffs, but included them anyway just because. Each team also has their own sheet with their last 20 games, including the (color-filtered) difficulty of their opponents. It’s a fricken rainbow.

Every team seems to have a few games in a row against teams competing (or about to compete) for lottery balls, though teams out West appear to have more daunting schedules overall.

There’s always the chance for an outlier like four of the last 30 seasons, though, but the Clips at least look well on their way to fit the minimum requirements to be labeled as a contender. That’s at least in regards to finishing steady.

But to include one last table, ending the last quarter of the season over .600 and with a sexy net rating doesn’t always guarantee making the deepest of runs in the playoffs. Below is a table of the best nets in the final fourth of seasons since 1997, according to NBA.com:

If that final table makes a team finishing hot suddenly worrisome, it probably shouldn’t. When looking at net ratings provided by Basketball-Reference in the very first table, champions often had very respectable ones. Chicago’s from 1996 is unreal.

Anyway, a lot still needs to be addressed regarding quite a few playoff teams. Let’s see how the last five weeks play out. The next two days should especially be entertaining thanks to a ton of good matchups.

For related posts, check out drastic movements in the lottery over the last two months of the season and what 20 wins before Christmas means in the West.

Non-conference update: West back on track for a record winning percentage

2014 NBA Season, East vs West March 10, 2014 Leave a comment

The non-conference update follows games pitting the Western Conference’s teams versus the East’s. This season, the West has often held a winning percentage so large it hasn’t been seen in over 50 years.

Over the month of February, the East put up a respectable fight against the West in non-conference play and ended a four-week span 40-46. It put the possibility of the West surpassing their best winning percentage of 63.3 at risk, having to go 71-35 for the rest of the season to set a new high.

Last week’s non-conference results made that mark reachable yet again, however, with the West going 20-8. Below is an updated week-by-week breakdown of non-conference matchups:

(Don’t ask about the colors I’ve been using to outline winning or tied weeks for the East. Both were random choices.)

Western Conference teams won all five games against the East’s heavyweights of Miami and Indiana, including Houston defeating both teams at home. Texas got the best of both of them overall, which isn’t that surprising. It also helped that LeBron James and Paul George, among other players from the two squads, each had an inconsistent week. Some of that blame/credit should go to the defenses of the squads they faced, however.

Even the lowly Kings and Jazz nabbed a couple wins. The Timberwolves, however, lost two games and saw their playoff hopes wash away. They beat Detroit, though, who I still can’t believe is 24-39, yet three games out from the free falling eighth-seeded Hawks team, but gives me no reason to believe they’ll make the playoffs. Maybe we’ll see Carmelo Anthony in the playoffs after all.

Below is a look at the league standings with non-conference games left. Conferences are separated by different sheets, so to view the West simply go to the bottom and click on sheet labeled after it:

Detroit’s seriously 4-20 against the West, putting them in similar company as Boston, Orlando, Philadelphia (POOR THADDEUS YOUNG), and Milwaukee. The only problem is that their record may be too good to keep their top-8 protected pick (good luck surpassing anyone below them but Cleveland). That, combined with not being good enough to make the playoffs, deciding on Greg Monroe this summer, and having Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings on the books until 2016, is about as going nowhere can get. Bad times all around.

Anyway, they have a winnable non-conference game at home on Tuesday against Sacramento, making for a matchup between Andre Drummond and DeMarcus Cousins. Fun, hopefully…!

Below are the rest of the non-conference games this week, 21 games overall:

To reach their record-high in non-conference winning percentage, the West will need to continue with a winning rate similar to last week. They play 15 road games to 6 home games, however. Playoff hopefuls from that conference play 11 games with four of them at home.

For the East’s title contenders, Miami plays two home games while Indiana has no non-conference games this week. We’ll get a good look at the Heat’s rematch against Houston on Sunday as well as Houston’s Thursday night game against Chicago and Joakim Noah, who I have a feeling will live forever or something else totally tubular.

Until next week.

Clippers’ shots near the rim last night among highest totals this season

2014 NBA Season, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers March 7, 2014 Leave a comment
shot chart

ESPN.com’s shot chart of last night’s Clips-Lakers whatever-that-was-we-watched.

If last night’s blowout between the Clippers and Lakers actually happened and wasn’t one of those bizarre dreams you have while napping, it can be clumped in the middle of a special group of games where a team (or sometimes both) absolutely feasted at the rim.

Unfortunately for the Lakers, the Clippers were responsible for over two-thirds of those (mostly) bunnies all while they gave the purple and gold their worst loss in franchise history.

40 of the Clippers’ points within the restricted area came from lobs finished by Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, baskets by Darren Collison, and whatever Danny Granger has left in him. The team as a whole totaled 60 points inside that half-circle that was like a landing pad after fast break opportunities. The production from that area of the floor ranked above 99.5 percent of all single-game shot location logs this season plucked from NBA.com.

Below is the other .5 percent, sorted by the season-high for most field goals made within the restricted area:

The Lakers lead the league in most field goals allowed inside the restricted area and most attempted there, and it’s not that close between them and second place in those stats. So maybe it’s not that big of a surprise to see them on that list twice as an opponent, especially when Detroit typically scores a ton of their points at the rim and the Clippers added some extra salt during the third quarter of last night’s game when it was over by halftime.

As for the field goals the Lakers allowed the Clippers to attempt around the rim, last night’s 44 shots weren’t that close to the league’s season high of 53. Unfortunately for the Lakers, that was set in their game against Detroit (which they ended up winning, though).

Going into the last five weeks of the season, we’re bound to see another outlier game or two allowed from any shot location not just by the Lakers but other teams limping to the finish line like the 76ers (poor Thaddeus Young), New Orleans (poor Anthony Davis?), and the New York Knicks (poor, poor Carmelo Anthony), among other teams.

But who knows? Maybe the Lakers will be on the good side of one of those outliers. After all, in their last 20 games they’ve been one of the best 3-point shooting teams both in volume and accuracy, so there’s that.

The least that could be asked out of them right now, however, is for last night to never happen again.

All stats are according to NBA.com.

Throwback Thursday: When Danny Fortson was unconscious from the stripe

Seattle SuperSonics, Throwback Thursday March 6, 2014 Comments: 5

Once in a while I’ll remember what day it is and post something related to Throwback Thursday. This week’s post goes back 10 seasons and then some in regards to a bruiser in the middle.

The 2005 SuperSonics had Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis both in the primes of their careers and knocking down three-pointer after three-pointer. Vladimir Radmanovic and Luke Ridnour were others  who also had accurate range. All of them helped make that squad one of the 20 most efficient offenses in the last 10 seasons, according to Basketball-Reference.

What’s easy to forget, though, is their free throw shooting was also elite. If not for Reggie Evans, the ’05 Sonics were one of the five most accurate shooters from the line. Evans could board, averaging 14 rebounds per 36 minutes, but making free throws was quite a weakness as he finished the season at 53 percent on three attempts per game.

Enter Danny Fortson, a bruiser off the bench who could rebound nearly as well (20.3 percent of available rebounds compared to Evans’ 23.9), foul over twice as often (yay?), but was as accurate from the free throw line as Allen and Ridnour that season. He finished the year at 88 percent, 10th best in the league and a mark higher than the current ones of Damian Lillard, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry, though Fortson’s skill set is nowhere near as glamorous as those three sharks.

A player like Fortson is normally a liability at the line, much like Evans still is. Since 2000, a player to snag more than 20 percent of rebounds in play for a season (accomplished 79 times) has on average made only 63.2 percent of their free throws. Players like Dwight Howard and (soon) Andre Drummond drag that percentage down but a few big men like Fortson and Kevin Love balance things out somewhat.

The table below should help show how weird of company Fortson is both included and tops in. The filters: 500 minutes played, 20 percent of available rebounds, and 80 percent free throw shooting:

For the fantasy basketball players out there: Fortson’s combination of rebounding and free throw shooting wasn’t enough to make him a valuable player overall except during 2002. Durability, lack of major minutes, and a lack of stocks – steals + blocks – all played a factor in that. Still, he could’ve been a nice piece for free throw percentage and rebounds as long as a team was punting blocks or steals.

As for the table, the filters might be a little loose so Fortson is included with the rest of the players listed above, but I had to make some kind of requirement so Quentin Richardson wouldn’t be included. Also, Zaid Abdul-Aziz just became one of my favorite NBA names ever. I even “liked” his Basketball-Reference page.

Anyway, in between the extremes of free throwers like Howard and Fortson are a bunch of players like Zach Randolph and Joakim Noah.

But while Fortson could joust for position under the rim with the best of them, he could also rack up fouls in a hurry. He’s only one of two players to log over 500 minutes and average nine fouls per-36. During his 2004-05 stint, he averaged over four fouls per game all while playing over 1,000 minutes, which is kind of impressive in itself. Since 2000, only eight players have averaged four fouls and even logged 500 minutes of play. The average free throw percentage for those guys is actually quite good, balancing out to 75.2 percent. DeMarcus Cousins is one of the worst free throwers of that group with Fortson as the best, thanks to that unusual 88 percent shooting.

Below is a table of those eight players and their free throw percentages:

It’s an interesting mix of players (not just on the court, but in general). For Jason Collins and Fortson, I’m not sure foul accumulation mattered that much since they’re rarely playing significant time anyway, but for someone like Shawn Kemp to average 4.5 fouls? Good grief.

Looking back, I’m not sure what Fortson’s best remembered for. Was it his fouling, rebounding, technical fouls, his time as a Cincinnati Bearcat, and/or even the dreadlocks that could’ve made him a solid teammate with Latrell Sprewell and Michael Beasley? It’s unlikely his free throw percentage can topple all of those traits, but his touch from the line was and continues to be so rare for a player like himself.

Below are some players who could join him in some rare company with the combo of free throw shooting and high-volume rebounding. As far as I’m concerned, especially after some searches on Basketball-Reference, nobody this season is within reach of his hot hand from the line and high-volume fouling.

That table isn’t meant to compare those players to Fortson; just listing a couple similar, basic stats they all thrive in. As for the 2005 playoffs, the Sonic forward/center shot 80 percent from the stripe on 15 attempts. A drop-off, sure, but still an impressive percentage nonetheless.

As usual, any other thoughts are welcome. Happy Thursday, but also happy Friday when that time arrives (if it hasn’t already).

All stats are according to Basketball-Reference unless noted otherwise.

Change of pace: The league’s fastest and slowest lineups

2014 NBA Season, Stats March 5, 2014 Leave a comment

Once in a while, coaches will give their team an unusual look on the floor for several reasons, one possibly being to either turn the game into a track meet or slow it to a crawl. Either way they likely disrupt the flow of the game, though hopefully to the advantage of a coach looking to change things up in the first place. This post will (hopefully) take a good look, with the help of a couple tables, at which lineups best give teams either another gear or a new set of breaks, for better or for worse.

The minimum minute requirement I made for lineups was 50. I also plucked out lineups with players no longer on the respective teams they were listed with, which impacted the Cavaliers’ units with Andrew Bynum and Chicago’s with Luol Deng, among others. The last filter I made was to adjust to a team’s average pace, otherwise the Philadelphia 76ers would represent half of the 10 fastest lineups. In the end, none of their five-man units of over 50 minutes of run made the cut. It also meant the Jazz and Bulls would make room for some the other slowest groups in the league.

Anyway, that’s about it. Below is the first table with the 10 fastest lineups. The 10 slowest are listed further down. All stats are according to NBA.com:

There’s a nice mix of lineups. Some go small with a big man to work around like Houston with Dwight Howard and Portland with LaMarcus Aldridge, each with four players to spread the floor and some able to slash. For the Blazers, Mo Williams basically replaces Robin Lopez, understandable to see it make the game as fast as possible. Also understandable is that they don’t stop opponents as efficiently as Houston’s unit.

Lineups from Brooklyn and Chicago also made the list, though only the Nets’ unit is faster than Philadelphia’s average pace of 102.68. A healthy Brook Lopez would’ve made for more huge lineups, but unfortunately they didn’t last long after the center broke his right foot. Chicago’s lineup isn’t exactly small, though on paper it feels that way without Joakim Noah. As expected, that lineup drops off without what he provides. Chicago’s overall pace hasn’t changed all that much with D.J. Augustin as the point guard, dropping by about half a possession per game since his arrival. Minnesota’s lineup is also missing their center in Nikola Pekovic. It isn’t exactly a lineup surrounding Kevin Love with four shooters, but one at least made for a track meet. Some of that pace might be helped by the outlet mall that is Love and a guard leaking out early after a missed (or sometimes made) shot.

Some more standard-looking lineups involve Denver’s, the Lakers’, Phoenix’s, San Antonio’s and Oklahoma City’s, though only Denver’s yields a positive net rating. In time, the Spurs’ and Thunder’s lineups should even out. No lineup with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook should be that bad. Same goes for Tim Duncan with Tony Parker, etc.

Now to the 10 slowest lineups, sorted by most snail-like to least:

Not surprisingly is Golden State making the list featuring a lineup without Stephen Curry or any point guard. That unit falls apart offensively but at least holds its own on defense thanks to the duo of Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bogut. Another big lineup, at least up front, is the Pelicans’ with Anthony Davis and Alexis Ajinca.

A similar Suns lineup to the one among the fastest in the league makes the slowest 10, arguably the biggest difference in players being Channing Frye at center to further stretch the floor instead of a Plumdog. The change on both sides of the court has been remarkable not just in pace but production as Phoenix has scored 30 more points per 100 possessions while allowing nearly 17 more.

A smallball variation that goes slow can be found in Atlanta with Elton Brand manning the middle. It’s hard to imagine any Hawks lineup without Paul Millsap, Al Horford, and Kyle Korver being even average on offense, though they’ve held their own on that side of the floor. Defensively, that Hawks unit understandably hasn’t fared well, but neither have five other ones listed. Detroit’s lineup featuring their big three with Chauncey Billups and Brandon Jennings in the backcourt is the most egregious mess, though the Wizards without John Wall and the Lakers without any resistance allow over 115 points per 100 possessions. So many flames yet so little water.

Utah’s lineup looks like one used in the last minutes of a blowout. That’s all I take away from theirs.

Overall, a bunch of the sample sizes from these fast or slow lineups are quite small when looking at minutes played. Quite a few have appeared in over 20 games, however, so it should be all right to take away some things from those tables. The easiest one for me is that it takes as simple as one substitution to alter a team’s normal pace, like how Portland’s fastest lineup involves Mo Williams substituting for Robin Lopez, or even Steven Adams for Kendrick Perkins when looking at Oklahoma City. I’d also lean towards familiarity as more of a factor in some teams struggling or thriving.

Over the next month, we’re bound to have a new lineup or two making the top 10 in one of the categories, most likely from a struggling team fiddling with players they’re curious about keeping long-term. Maybe we’ll also see the same ones with either vast improvements or drop-offs in production while others might be stored away for the rest of the season. Most teams find a middle ground with their starting lineups anyway, somewhere between 95 and 98 possessions per game, but it helps to have a lineup or two to change the flow or a starting lineup that can dictate the pace. If there could only be one lineup to change gears, though, would a much slower or faster one be more desirable for a team with a league-average pace? I guess that could make for a decent discussion with answers being player-dependent.

Any other thoughts are certainly welcome.

As a reminder, all stats are from NBA.com.