Last week, I started a weekly series built around unusual shot charts from teams. I really haven’t heard opposition or compliments about them, so I decided to make another post and proceed from there. I looked at which teams took advantage of the corner three, took a ton of shots from one side or the other, bombed away from three, or had a shot chart that was symmetrical.
FUN STUFF.
Here are last week’s shot charts that stood out to me, from December to 16 to 22. All shot charts are from ESPN.com:
The Clips bomb away from the corners (December 16 versus San Antonio)
The Clippers gave San Antonio a taste of their own medicine after they beat the Timberwolves with the right corner three.
Los Angeles 10 attempted corner threes total, mostly thanks to Willie Green and Jared Dudley. Jamal Crawford also made a 34-footer as time wound down at the end of the game. Classy.
The Clips won, 115-92.
New York gets really weird (December 18 at Milwaukee)
Players from the ’60s are throwing up at that shot chart. So many threes, so many long twos.
I already went into detail about this game here, but it’s still worth mentioning that the Knicks chucked 41 threes with J.R. Smith accountable for 17 of them.
New York won this Toilet Bowl, 107-101 in double overtime.
Kyle Korver has a field day from the corners (December 18 versus Sacramento)
More corner three talk!
Paul Millsap also joined in on the fun from the corners, making two of his own. The main beneficiary was Kyle Korver, though. For the night, he drained eight threes. As a team, the Hawks were 15-for-25 from behind the line. It’s an easy game.
Atlanta won 124-107.
Portland chucks (December 18 at Minnesota)
Portland took 40 threes for the night, 17 coming in the 4th quarter. It felt like every one of those happened in this sequence:
Minnesota took advantage of a team on their fourth game in five nights, jumping out to a 30-point lead (!!!) in the first half and scoring 98 points through three quarters.
Damian Lillard nearly led a comeback from 30 down, but it was too big of a hole to climb out of. Shocking, I know.
Minnesota won, 120-109.
Memphis pounds the paint (December 18 at Dallas)
54 points came in the paint for Memphis, 18 more than the Mavs. They even made their threes, shooting eight-for-18 from beyond the arc. It’s not every day that happens. Memphis has made only five threes per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. That’s second-worst in the NBA only to the Charlotte Bobcats.
Overall, Memphis took 20 more shots than Dallas, but it wasn’t enough. They were 29-for-75 inside the three-point line, which amounts to a Ricky Rubio-like 38.7 percent. The Grizzlies kind of really miss Marc Gasol, and their 2015 first round pick they owe Cleveland is starting to look juicy with every loss.
Memphis lost this game, 105-91.
Minnesota teeters towards the left side (December 20 at the Lakers)
It’s not all that surprising when no Timberwolf consistently in the rotation is left-hand, but nonetheless it’s a shot chart worth looking at. It’s like having a batting lineup predominantly right-handed with 95 percent of the balls in play going to left field. It happens, I guess.
If Kevin Love was a baseball player, he would definitely be that righty causing a defensive shift to the left side. He takes a ton of his shots from that area, but tonight the entire team jumped in.
The results were miserable. The Lakers won 104-91. It was one of the worst losses I’ve witnessed this season.
The Jazz make their threes (December 21 at Charlotte)
Early in the season I wrote about the Jazz’s embarrassing struggles from the arc, specifically in the corners. They’re up to 29.3 percent from that area of the three-point line. Lots and lots of progress, considering they were below 10 percent to start the season.
Four of their 10 made threes came from Trey Burke, who seems like a very nice building block alongside Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, and Gordon Hayward. Good times all around, and the draft pick Golden State owes them might have better value than expected.
The Jazz won 88-85. It’s a pretty bad loss for Charlotte who has a chance to possibly finish over .500 this season.
Symmetry by Golden State (at home versus the Lakers, December 21)
Cut the Warriors’ shot chart in half and it’ll look eerily similar. You might have to make every shot an X or an O, since the Warriors made a couple threes from the left corner and none from the right, but it looks pretty cool nonetheless.
This is the second of a two-part series about the return of Danny Granger. For part one, click here.
In an hour or so the Celtics will tip off against the Pacers, who recently got back Danny Granger after he missed the first 25 games with a calf strain. Indiana seemed just fine without their small forward who started 423 of 510 games from 2006 to 2012, but he can provide a major boost off the bench and allow Frank Vogel to experiment with some new lineups.
Granger looked better on Friday night than his numbers might indicate. He shot 1-for-7 from the field but the attempts were open and in rhythm, ones that will fall in time. There were also five turnovers, but a few of them were typical of a player in their first game of the season, turnovers everyone else (hopefully) got out of their system in the pre-season. It seemed like he has yet to get his legs fully under him, which is understandable. HeblockedDwight Howardfrombehind but there were also times when he didn’t elevate well. Overall, it seemed like a typical night for someone playing in their very first game of the season.
If he can stay healthy and work out the kinks, Granger can bolster an already improved bench. Their offensive efficiency is still in the bottom-10 among NBA benches, according to NBA.com, scoring 96.7 points per 100 possessions, but the shooting is much improved, up from 39.4 percent last year to 43.8. The bench’s defensive rating has remained top notch too, going from 97.2 points allowed per 100 possessions to 96.6. Granger’s a solid defender when healthy, so the Pacers shouldn’t take a hit on that end of the court.
Offensively, Granger’s certainly an upgrade over someone like Orlando Johnson, and the second unit already features key cogs with the likes of C.J. Watson, Luis Scola, Ian Mahimni, and sometimes Lance Stephenson. Without Granger, that’s still miles ahead of what the Pacers had to work with last year with D.J. Augustin, Sam Young, and Gerald Green, among others. With Granger as the sixth man, Indiana shouldn’t miss a beat when the most of the starters get their breathers.
Note: I should add that I’m expecting Granger to come off the bench because their starting lineup has a plus-minus differential of +5.3 per game. Don’t fix what isn’t broken.
Aside from being a sixth man, Granger could provide for some interesting lineups. This is especially when he’s paired with Paul George, who at times can run the point or move to shooting guard where he started his first two seasons. Vogel has already experimented with that super tall wing duo, pairing Granger and George with Hill, Scola, and Roy Hibbert for a few minutes as well as using the same starting lineup from 2012. Granger and George logged six minutes together on Friday night, according to NBA.com. The plus-minus differential was zero.
Along with going tall, a healthy Granger also makes for some small ball units. In 2012, Vogel used 17 of those lineups that placed George and Granger with only one power forward or center, according to NBA.com. The results were hot and cold, posting a plus-minus differential of plus-22 in just 59 minutes but shooting just 40 percent from the field. Of the time Granger was on the floor in 2012, three percent of it was at power forward, according to Basketball-Reference.
Houston, with the likes of Terrence Jones and Omri Casspi at power forward, provided an opportunity for Vogel to go small on Friday night, but only Granger played with those kinds of lineups when the game was well out of hand. Going forward, small lineups against New York and Miami, for example (especially when Carmelo Anthony or LeBron James play power forward), could be possible. Miami’s crunch time lineups often consist of consist of LeBron with Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, Ray Allen, and Chris Bosh, but it’s unlikely Vogel would show that kind of card to Miami during the regular season.
Besides, going big is why Indiana does so well against Miami, among other teams. It’s obvious, but experimenting with Granger at power forward with the starters would mean sitting one of David West and Roy Hibbert. West would seem like the odd man out, unless Indiana wanted to gamble without one of the best rim protectors in the league. In that case, going small with George and Granger at small forward and power forward, respectively, might be better with the second unit and Ian Mahinmi at center.
Regardless, Miami’s preparing Greg Oden for the playoffs but Indiana has their own ace up their sleeve in Danny Granger. If he doesn’t get traded Frank Vogel has four months to find the best situations for him, and as long as he can stay healthy he could make an already great Pacers team even better.
For part one of this series about the cloud hanging over Danny Granger’s expiring contract, click here.
This is the first of a two-part series, this one featuring the cloud hanging over Danny Granger’s future with Indiana. Click here for part two.
With already 21 wins, it’s easy to forget that the Indiana Pacers haven’t been at full strength this season. That is, until Danny Granger came off the bench last night after missing the first 25 games of the season with a strained calf. In a contrast of styles, the Pacers beat the Rockets by 33, coincidentally the number on Granger’s jersey.
Granger finished with only two points on 1-for-7 shooting, but he showed the potential of getting back to the player he used to be. Not since 2012 has he looked like himself, when the Pacers were nearly 12 points better per 100 possessions when he was on the court, according to NBA.com. He led them both in scoring and usage rate for both that season and, at the time, their most memorable playoff run in years. Indiana wasn’t the same when he was on the bench, a bottom-five team in scoring efficiency and mediocre defensively.
Indiana has also improved from within. This is no longer the Granger-led team from 2008 to 2012, the latter season being the one when Lance Stephenson was a go-to guy in garbage time (he even had a 45.8% usage rating in the playoffs). He’s become a proven, reliable shooting guard since then and can compliment the starting lineup and/or leads the second unit. Meanwhile, Roy Hibbert has become a defensive monster that’s lived up to his new contract.
The improvement that impacts Granger the most, though, comes fromPaul Georgewho, after faltering in the 2012 playoffs but breaking out in 2013, is now Indiana’s starting small forward until at least 2018. It’s an awkward spot for Granger who was Indiana’s first franchise cornerstone after they traded away nearly everyone involved in the Malice at the Palace. They’ve become a title contender without him and, in the process, have a small forward who’s having a better season than he ever had.
And Granger might not be around much longer, currently in the last year of a five-year deal worth $60 million. Given his recent injury history, his likely role off the bench this season and the $14 million he’s making this year, his next contract will certainly be cheaper. Indiana has only so much room to maneuver without dipping into the luxury tax, and any money thrown at a Pacer this summer will likely be given instead to Stephenson (which has been discussed here). He’s seven years younger than Granger, the only other impact player coming off the books, and the only starter without a long-term deal. Given the improvements Stephenson’s made in his first four seasons, Indiana might not even be able to afford him either.
Losing either one of those players, let alone both, would be a bummer given how much they’ve developed with Indiana. Stephenson has become a key piece to a title-contending team despite 39 players taken ahead of him in the 2010 Draft, but Granger led the franchise from their rock-bottom seasons in the mid-2000s to when they gave the Miami Heat their first major scare of the 2012 playoffs. Indiana’s been a thorn in the Heat’s side ever since, but Granger’s been an afterthought. That is, until last night when the fans at Bankers Life Fieldhouse welcomed him back with a standing ovation. They did the same when he made his first field goal:
But Paul George had some highlights of his own, including a fast break dunk that brought the house down. He led the team in scoring all while hasslingJames Hardenon the defensive end, a typical night from one of the premier players in the league. At one point, Granger was one of those guys.
How much of Granger’s future involves Indiana remains to be seen. He might even be gone before the trade deadline. It would be a cruel ending to his career as a Pacer, but the NBA is nonetheless a business.
The best scenario for both sides? Indiana lets Granger walk this summer, but only after he plays a pivotal role in helping the franchise win a championship. It would be a fitting end for a player who helped rebuild the Pacers from the bottom up, even if they may have won without him.
Just another reminder: This post isn’t meant to crap on Indiana’s great start by looking ahead to the trade deadline and summer. The next post will be devoted to some interesting lineups Danny Granger can be featured in.
These are my thoughts at 3 a.m., which carried over to a morning with just a couple hours of sleep.
We should’ve seen a performance like last night coming, especially after what happened last year when the Spurs rested Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and even Danny Green against Miami. The Heat needed 47 minutes and 55 seconds to pull away from a “depleted” Spurs squad, one that got a double-double out of Matt Bonner, no less.
Despite the excitement that came from a near-upset over the Heat, the Spurs got tacked with a fine for resting four-fifths of their starters. There was no fine for resting Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker last night against Golden State. All they left with was a victory over a Warriors squad trying to find themselves again since Andre Iguodalareturned from a strained hamstring.
Golden State also might’ve leaked their frustration over Twitter:
Last night wasn’t a mega-Ewing Theory because the Spurs aren’t vastly overrated and Duncan won four rings from 1999 to 2007, though it was understandable to write them off last night when their starting lineup gave us a clue of what we could possibly see in 2016.
What they could be, though, is the NBA’s version of the Monstars. It’s entirely possible that Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker transferred their talents over to Boris Diaw, Marco Belinelli, and Patty Mills as soon as the former three were scratched from tonight’s game, right? Right?!?!
To be fair and not so weird, Diaw has already been one of the best players in the post this season. He’s fourth in the league in post-up efficiency, according to Synergy, averaging 1.13 points per possession over 38 tries. He’s also been oddly effective in isolation by finishing with scoops and hook shots, averaging 1.36 points per possession in those specific situations. Meanwhile, Belinelli has been on fire this season by shooting a league-leading 53.2 percent from three and 60 percent in catch-and-shoot situations, according to SportVU. Mills has also been a hot hand in limited time with shooting splits of 47.3/43.4/80 and a PER of 18.9.
But each put up a hell of a performance last night. Diaw was dunking and making chase-down blocks like he was jumping off a trampoline that didn’t collapse from his own weight, Patty Mills made huge plays in crunch time, and Belinelli was unstoppable off the bench while also being my player of the game, scoring 17 points in the third quarter and 28 points in 29 minutes. At one point I had to tweet this nonsense:
It was other-worldly even after factoring in Diaw’s performance in last year’s Finals, Belinelli’s streaky shooting in general, and Mills’ intense towel-waving. We also can’t forget Tiago Splitter‘s game-winner.
But you could also compare the Monstars to other teams in the NBA. After all, the Nerdlucks stole the talent of the NBA’s best players and Shawn Bradley. Were the Heat the Monstars of 2011? What about Daryl Morey over the last two seasons?
Maybe Gregg Popovich is just a really, really good coach. Switch him with Randy Wittman and let’s see how good the Spurs are without their three franchise cornerstones. Even with Pop, it’d be interesting to see how the they would do in the East.
Depending on what you characterize as “crunch time”, though, the sample sizes can be even smaller than the ones I included for this post. For example, if it means when there’s one minute left in a close game then some teams will have only totaled 10 to 15 minutes. There would also be a ton of free throws and last-second situations, which makes for inflated offensive ratings and pace.
FUN FACT: Only the Raptors have a pace below 100 with one minute left in crunch time, according to NBA.com, which makes sense when Dwane Casey has a knack for wasting 2-for-1 opportunities and/or not fouling when down with 25 seconds left:
Every other team has a pace ranging from 116 to 156. If we define crunch time as within five minutes left and either up or down by five points (like what I used to determine the go-to players), the pace goes down to anywhere between 90 and 105. We also get a larger sample size between 30 and 80 minutes, depending on the team.
Let’s see how this works out, beginning with the best and worst 10 teams according to net rating and then by shooting percentages.
Net Rating
The top 10
Team
MIN
W
L
OffRtg
DefRtg
NetRtg
+/-
PACE
Memphis Grizzlies
37
7
4
125.2
83.8
41.4
29
88.98
Portland Trail Blazers
51
12
2
133.9
95.5
38.4
49
101.28
Indiana Pacers
40
9
2
117.5
94.7
22.8
24
95.91
Philadelphia 76ers
64
6
7
115.1
94.2
20.9
10
105.18
Oklahoma City Thunder
48
10
3
115.9
98.8
17.1
18
104.18
Dallas Mavericks
47
9
7
105.7
90.9
14.8
26
92.86
Denver Nuggets
39
8
4
108.6
95
13.6
15
104.43
Phoenix Suns
49
10
6
112.5
99.2
13.3
15
95.24
Utah Jazz
46
5
6
123.4
112.3
11.1
15
94.64
New Orleans Pelicans
64
6
6
117
106
10.9
-4
95.89
It’s weird to see a positive net rating for the Pelicans when their plus-minus is negative four. I’m not exactly sure how that happened or how it happens in the first place.
The Marc Gasol-less Grizzlies are at the top, though. They’re the best defensive rebounding team in the league in crunch time, grabbing 85.3 percent of opponent’s misses and allowing only four second-chance points. Memphis also grinds the game to a halt, relinquishing only two fast break points and 22 points in the paint. The former stat ties with Miami for best in the league while the latter ties for second with Indiana and San Antonio. (Dallas is best at preventing points in the paint during crunch time by allowing only 20 over 46 minutes of play. Utah is near the top of that list, as well as in least fast break points allowed.)
Memphis seems misleading offensively, however. 35 of their 87 points come at the line, they’re horrible from the arc and they don’t get second chance or fast break points. Their offensive efficiency should drop in time and their defensive efficiency should take a hit without Gasol, though Tony Allen remains as a key defensive cog.
For the Blazers, they squeak into the top 10 in fast break and second chance points but blow teams away from the arc, shooting 18 for 39 on threes. It also helps when Damian Lillarddoes Damian Lillard things:
The Jazz are also up there in scoring efficiency, mostly thanks to shooting nine for 16 from three and a good dose of (gasp) Marvin Williams. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has actually been terrible from the field, shooting just 15 for 60 on shots outside of the restricted area. It’s like them and the Jazz got their stats mixed up.
More on shooting percentages in a bit. Let’s look at the 10 worst teams in crunch time, according to their net rating:
The bottom 10
Team
MIN
W
L
OffRtg
DefRtg
NetRtg
+/-
PACE
Brooklyn Nets
41
4
8
80.1
106
-25.9
-32
102.7
Chicago Bulls
70
4
9
91
115.2
-24.3
-26
94.14
Golden State Warriors
59
5
7
88.4
112.4
-24
-24
95.38
Sacramento Kings
52
3
8
88.4
105.7
-17.3
-22
91
Orlando Magic
55
5
10
93.2
109.4
-16.1
-21
101.24
Atlanta Hawks
48
7
8
94.8
109.6
-14.9
-19
91.05
Milwaukee Bucks
62
4
9
96.9
109.8
-12.9
-19
101.23
New York Knicks
54
4
10
87.4
100.3
-12.9
-18
93.97
Charlotte Bobcats
41
6
8
91.5
104
-12.5
-15
100.9
Cleveland Cavaliers
54
7
7
92.7
103.3
-10.6
-9
92.51
It’s interesting that Toronto’s not up there until realizingRudy Gay was pretty good in late-game situations.
Quite a few of these teams are at or near the bottom 10 in allowing fast break and second chance points. They also give up a few more free throws. 22 of Golden State’s 54 free throws allowed, for example, have come within one minute left. The discrepancy of fouls drawn is huge within one minute as well, with Golden State only drawing two compared to being whistled for 14.
It’s odd that Golden State has one of the worst net ratings since Stephen Curry has been one of the best in crunch time, but the foul discrepancy over the final five minutes of close games is pretty consistent with the best and worst teams. Four of the top five with the largest foul differential not in their favor are also in the bottom 10 teams in regards to net efficiency. Meanwhile, four of the top five with fouling in their favor are in the top 10.
Large positive and negative net ratings are typical over the course of a season, but the small sample sizes allow for change over the next four months. Shooting percentages can also change. Let’s take a look at the 10 best and 10 worst shooting teams in the crunch, sorting them by effective field goal percentage.
Shooting Efficiency
The top 10
Team
MIN
eFG%
NetRtg
AST%
Field Goals
FG%
3FG
3FG%
FT
FT%
Portland Trail Blazers
51
0.581
38.4
0.512
41-86
47.7
18-39
46.2
48-58
82.8
Phoenix Suns
49
0.564
13.3
0.442
43-86
50.0
11-28
39.3
21-27
77.8
Philadelphia 76ers
64
0.562
20.9
0.560
50-97
51.5
9-22
40.9
42-55
76.4
Utah Jazz
46
0.549
11.1
0.514
35-72
48.6
9-16
56.3
35-44
79.5
Denver Nuggets
39
0.534
13.6
0.630
27-59
45.8
9-23
39.1
31-49
63.3
Miami Heat
35
0.519
8.6
0.696
23-52
44.2
8-20
40.0
24-32
75.0
San Antonio Spurs
30
0.508
-6.0
0.586
29-61
47.5
4-14
28.6
11-18
61.1
Dallas Mavericks
47
0.507
14.8
0.529
34-73
46.6
6-17
35.3
28-33
84.8
Memphis Grizzlies
37
0.500
41.4
0.542
24-52
46.2
4-14
28.6
35-42
83.3
Los Angeles Clippers
48
0.494
7.9
0.429
35-80
43.8
9-23
39.1
42-56
75.0
Weird note: Dallas and Phoenix already have 16 games that qualified for crunch time numbers, the most in the league. San Antonio has had the least games by far, with only 8.
I was expecting a lot of the Suns’ threes coming from drive-and-kick situations thanks to Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic, but most came from shots off the dribble. Gerald Green had one contested fast break three that displayed terrible judgment, but went in anyway. Whatever.
Not surprisingly, though, the best effective field goal percentages come from the teams draining threes. There are also teams you would expect to be at the top: Miami, San Antonio, Dallas, the Clippers, and probably Portland. “Star-less” teams like the Jazz and Nuggets are also shooting better than the Knicks, for example. More on New York in a bit.
There’s also a pretty big difference in assist percentage between the best and worst, among other stats. It’s no surprise that Toronto, Cleveland, Detroit, and Charlotte are at the bottom of that statistic when each often rely on their point guard or a wing to go one-on-five. And just like that, I spoiled nearly half of the bottom 10 teams:
The bottom 10
Team
MIN
eFG%
NetRtg
AST%
FGM
FG%
3FGM
3FG%
FT
FT%
Charlotte Bobcats
41
0.340
-24.3
0.348
23-72
31.9
3-18
16.7
27-33
81.8
New York Knicks
54
0.346
-10.6
0.607
28-91
30.8
7-36
19.4
31-35
88.6
Chicago Bulls
71
0.365
-17.3
0.579
38-115
33.0
8-30
26.7
33-44
75.0
Milwaukee Bucks
63
0.368
-12.9
0.516
31-95
32.6
8-23
34.8
36-46
78.3
Toronto Raptors
44
0.372
-2.5
0.346
26-78
33.3
6-20
30.0
22-35
62.9
Cleveland Cavaliers
54
0.390
-12.5
0.333
36-100
36.0
6-26
23.1
29-43
67.4
Detroit Pistons
51
0.392
-24.0
0.313
32-88
36.4
5-18
27.8
28-38
73.7
Brooklyn Nets
42
0.397
-25.9
0.440
25-68
36.8
4-19
21.1
14-27
51.9
Indiana Pacers
40
0.400
22.8
0.520
25-70
35.7
6-22
27.3
41-49
83.7
Golden State Warriors
60
0.410
-14.9
0.472
36-100
36.0
10-34
29.4
22-29
75.9
A few of these teams were expected to struggle. The Bulls and Nets have been depleted, Milwaukee’s a mess, and the Pacers – wait, what? Like last year, Indiana barely squeezes into the bottom 10 in shooting efficiency. Their free throws help put them in the middle of the league in true shooting, however. Overall, their offensive efficiency is about average.
At the bottom in effective field goal percentage are the Bobcats. Charlotte can’t seem to make anything outside the restricted area, but they have nothing on Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith and the rest of the Knicks. If we fiddle around with the minutes that represent crunch time, we get this out of New York:
More Knicks stats in crunch time
Time
MIN
OffRtg
DefRtg
NetRtg
FG
FG%
3FG
3FG%
FT
FT%
Last 2 minutes
21
83.6
83.3
0.40
8-42
19.0
0-18
0.0
22-26
84.6
Last 1 minute
11
71.3
90
-18.6
4-25
16.0
0-14
0.0
12 16
75.0
Those field goal percentages are dead last in the league. Only two of the made field goals within two minutes have come outside the paint (two-for-25). That should change for the better with Tyson Chandlerreturning as soon as tonight. It can’t get much worse, though I’ve come to expect the unexpected from New York.
Overall, the sample sizes are admittedly small but nonetheless worth looking at. There’s plenty of time for teams to turn things around but an awkward outlier or two will probably remain, like when the Charlotte Bobcats and the post-LeBron James pre-Kyrie Irving Cleveland Cavaliershad two of the best net ratings in crunch time in 2011. Miami will likely creep their way into the top 10 in terms of net rating as well. They’re just too suffocating to be left out.
Chicken Noodle Hoop 