MVPs rarely the best in fantasy basketball

Fantasy Basketball, RotoMonster November 16, 2013 1 Comment

What MVP really means has been a debate for as long as my 20-something self can remember. Is it the best player in the league? Is it the best player on the best team? Just how much do statistics factor into voting? What about boredom, bias, and anonymity from voters? It seems like the importance of each question weighs more or less depending on the season.

So it may or may not be surprising that, since 1996, only two players (Tim Duncan in 2002 and Kevin Garnett in 2004) have been the MVP and the highest-ranked in fantasy basketball in the same season, according to RotoMonster, especially when what only matters in fantasy leagues are statistics. A player can be as big of a jerk to the media as he wants and be the best as many seasons prior to the current one, but he’ll always have a chance to be the best player in fantasy basketball because no votes are taken into account. It’s just stats, though doing anything resulting in a suspension would cause a dip in fantasy value.

There are seasons worth discussing though when the MVP in real and fantasy basketball weren’t the same player, such as 1997 when Karl Malone hijacked the MVP from Michael Jordan. Had Jordan won, he would’ve repeated as both MVP and the best in fantasy basketball’s 9-category and 8-category leagues. Ironically, Malone would be the best in fantasy basketball one year later while Jordan would be the ‘98 MVP. 

Then fast forward to the mid-2000s. I already wrote about Shawn Marion dominating from 2005 to 2007 even though he wasn’t the best player on his own team. Then Chris Paul’s fantasy basketball dominance came along in 2008, which is another weird season where a fair, even more logical case can be made for him winning the MVP over Kobe Bryant. Paul had one more year at the top of fantasy basketball before Kevin Durant took over, including one of the best statistical seasons of all-time in 2013. LeBron James would be second-best but they nearly flip-flopped when it came to MVP voting and rightfully so (Carmelo Anthony did receive one vote but whatever).

Some MVPs just aren’t made for fantasy basketball, no matter the season. Shaquille O’Neal and Allen Iverson were often risky picks because of their durability and shooting percentages, whether it was free throws for Shaq or field goals for Iverson. It’s pretty remarkable just how much Shaq’s free throws weighed him down. Even going by per-game stats, Shaq was only a top ten fantasy option once (1994), though a clever owner could work around free throw percentage by punting that entire category, which was basically required in order to draft him.

It’s also worth noting that the best overall player in fantasy basketball doesn’t necessarily mean the best player in every fantasy basketball league. If each league voted for MVP the same way the media votes for theirs, there would be at least 25 different winners when taking every fantasy league into account. Heck, if I win my league, either Paul Millsap or David Lee has my vote. Meanwhile, Durant is on a team where the owner has tuned out, evident by his or her lineups never being set. Not only that, but Yao Ming is starting. (I wasted my first two picks on Jason Collins and Allen Iverson though, so I can’t say much.)

But you have to believe that fantasy leagues where money for the winner or crazy punishments for the losers will lead to the best overall fantasy basketball player making the biggest difference. It’s also possible that the winner of a Most Improved Fantasy Basketball Player award, if it ever existed, could swing a team’s fortunes as well.

So far, this season’s a different kind of beast where Durant is competing with Kevin Love, James Harden, Chris Paul, and Anthony Davis for the most valuable fantasy basketball player. In real life, the Heat aren’t as big of a story as in the past, which opens the door for a different MVP on the real hardwood as well, even if it’s clear that LeBron’s the best player in the world.

The drought may continue concerning 10 straight seasons where MVPs in both real and fantasy basketball haven’t been the same player, but it wouldn’t be a travesty if LeBron were the MVP yet is second-best on the virtual courts yet again. And really, it’s not even an issue. None of this isn’t meant to change how an MVP is voted for either, though anonymous voting really needs to end. But hopefully it makes for some weird, nerdy discussions, especially when the opportunity is there for the drought to end.

All fantasy basketball stats and rankings are from RotoMonster.

Andre Iguodala’s shot chart resembes a putting green (with a sand trap too)

Golden State Warriors, Screenshots, Shot Charts November 15, 2013 Leave a comment

Everything’s sunny for Andre Iguodala, who gave the Golden State Warriors a game-winning bucket last night only after Russell Westbrook did all he could for Oklahoma City.

But this isn’t about just last night. Iguodala, widely known for his great defense, has turned in a terrific season offensively as well. In fact, his shot chart seems like one normally reserved for Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, or Kevin Durant, but it also brings back memories of golfing in the summer. Introducing, the putting green that is Iguodala’s shot chart:

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The rectangular sand trap in the right corner is a bit awkward since I doubt such bunkers exist, but it’s hard to complain when it could cover the entire court should Iguodala, for some reason, go on a horrific shooting slump.

Let’s not mix basketball and golf any more than we should though. Charles Barkley has shown what could go wrong when we take it too far:

Houston’s twin’s towers: A permanent breakup or temporary?

2014 NBA Season, Houston Rockets November 14, 2013 Leave a comment

200px-Houston_Rockets.svg

Playing Dwight Howard and Omer Asik together seemed hopeless from the get-go.

You could say Kevin McHale’s change in the lineup last night was a one-time adjustment, meant to match up with a smaller, hectic 76ers lineup that started Thaddeus Young at power forward, but the results of playing the two centers at once justify scrapping the ‘Twin Tower’ idea altogether. In 92 minutes, the Rockets were minus-35 in point-differential when Howard and Asik were on the floor, scoring at a rate that would’ve ranked far and away dead last in the league. Defensively, they flirted with the bottom ten in efficiency, that side of the court being where the two centers would be effective.

But not when they’re paired together.  

Enter Terrence Jones, the second-year forward who started in Asik’s place in last night’s overtime-loss. He had 10 points, 11 rebounds, three blocks, and two threes in 37 minutes. Pick and choose which of those statistics is most surprising, whether it’s the threes he helped stretch the floor with, the rebounding that was very good for the playing time he was given, or even just the fact that he played 37 minutes even if the game went to overtime.

Or maybe Asik all but joining ‘Club Trillion’ in only four minutes of play stuck out more than whatever Jones did. It’s too early to peg just how many minutes he will receive if he continues coming off the bench, though he only played 10-15 minutes when he was a backup for the Chicago Bulls.  Who knows what McHale has in store for Asik and the Houston’s rotation going forward. 

Jones playing 37 minutes was also surprising, as mentioned earlier, but he made them count. 30 of them were with Howard, resulting in Houston being plus-eight in point-differential in that timeframe. The starting lineup with Jones and Howard was even better as they logged 25 minutes as a unit and were plus-11. Defensively, they had about the same efficiency as any lineup featuring Asik and Howard together, but the offense was so much better. It also helps when Jeremy Lin makes, say, nine three pointers, though his defense continues to be a question mark going forward.

It was obviously only one game (I feel like I’ll have to type ‘SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT’ in every post for another month) and the absence of James Harden and Michael Carter-Williams, the triple-double of Tony Wroten, and the 36-point outburst of James Anderson were just a few reasons to take last night’s results with a whole saltshaker. 

But Houston’s experiment with playing Terrence Jones at power forward was a necessary one, in my couch potato opinion, regardless of the opposition. Tonight, the Rockets match up with the Knicks, another team featuring a small ball starting lineup. Let’s see what McHale does next.

All stats are from NBA.com.

Looking at the corner 3, where the Utah Jazz are shooting nine percent

2014 NBA Season, Shot Charts, Utah Jazz November 13, 2013 Comments: 3
Shotchart_1384330671093

Utah’s shot chart. So much blood.

It might be overkill to look at the Utah Jazz’s struggles when I wrote about Toronto’s shooting yesterday. That, and Zach Lowe touched on the cramped spacing for Utah at the end of his latest column. But I’ll also look at a few more things about the corner three, including which team was once so good from that special area that it was silly.

But to start, as you can see in the Jazz’s shot chart, there are a lot of areas where the Jazz are struggling to convert offense from. None of it is worse than the corner three though, where they’ve shot a whopping 9.1 percent (3 for 33). It’s obviously a small sample size and a few other teams have been brutal from the area that usually produces the most efficient shot outside of a layup, but it’s difficult imagining the Jazz not being one of the five worst shooting teams from that area by season’s end. Who’s going to make those shots? Can Richard Jefferson catch fire for like one game? Where’s Brandon Rush? It might be up to Gordon Hayward, who was at least 45 percent from the right corner last year.

Again, it’s only been eight games, but hopefully they don’t break the record for worst shooting ever from the corners. That record belongs to Grant Hill, Jerry Stackhouse and the 1998 Detroit Pistons who shot a record-worst 25.2 percent, according to NBA.com. To stay above that mark, Utah, if they keep taking the same amount of shots from the corner as they previously have, will have to make at least 28 percent from here on out.

Hopefully that’s manageable, and it should be. No team has made less than 30 percent of their corner threes since the Jazz of 2007. If it’s not, then starting 0-8 may only be the beginning of a long, frustrating season in Salt Lake City. (At least there’s college basketball to look forward to.)

It’s weird though. Utah used to traditionally be at or near the bottom in corner threes attempted but were very good at making them. And since they were good at making them (they shot 50.7 percent in 1999, which is nowhere near the best and soon you’ll see who is) then why didn’t they shoot more? Why didn’t every team shoot more from the corner? No team neglected corner threes as much as Portland did in 1997 though, according to NBA.com, setting the record for the least corner threes attempted in a season with 86. Last year, 12 teams surpassed that many attempts before December.

But in 1997, another record involving corner threes was set–and this one is way better! The Charlotte Hornets, featuring Dell Curry and Glen Rice in his career year, set the record for the most accurate shooting from the corners by making 108 of their 175 attempts for a blistering 61.7 percent. Most teams today don’t even shoot that well around the rim. (Edit: Glen Rice was 45 for 68 from the corner three — 66.2 percent) 

There are a ton of good shooters from the corner today but picturing a team breaking that mark, combined with the total number of shots taken there? That would surely be a team for the ages. Hopefully the Utah Jazz don’t end up on the opposite end of that discussion.

Mediocre NBA teams deserve special slogans too

2013 Free Agency, 2014 NBA Draft November 13, 2013 Leave a comment

“Riggin for Wiggins” is just one slogan the 2014 NBA Draft and its potential prospects have created for teams tanking in March and April. Bill Simmons may or may not have gotten carried away with them last night. Check it out:

I can’t say much, especially when I’ve always thought about tweeting “play like Shart for Smart”, so I saved it for my blog. Nice. That’ll boost my credibility.

But if we could go back in time, I’d also make slogans for teams that tried to stay good in the short term in exchange for a dent in the future. Here they are. Read if you dare:

Washington Wizards: So distraught without Gortat. 

Charlotte Bobcats: Understand the rationale for Big Al. 

Cleveland Cavaliers: Ain’t jack without Jack. 

New York Knicks: Scrawny without Bargnani. 

Milwaukee Bucks: Brandon Jennings-lite with Brandon Knight.

New Orleans Pelicans: Turn away as we trade for Holiday.

Detroit Pistons: Happily writhe for Josh Smith.

Dallas Mavericks: Overzealous for Ellis. 

Los Angeles Lakers: I’m just sayin‘, Chris Kaman?

If none of these worked for you, I apologize. Proceed to jump through the laptop and hit me with a frying pan.